Retailers React

ken lewis bank of americaYesterday, I discussed many of the concerns facing consumers in the near future and how that should affect the performance of retailers. I discussed this more thoroughly in yesterday's podcast, as well as discussed several retailers and funds I am eyeballing as an opportunity for profits, especially when the market turns. Today, retail sales were announced, which came right in line with expectations (.5%). However, like I said a few days ago and as we've seen with other reporting data, meeting expectations is becoming a bad thing lately, as people are realizing how low analysts are setting and revising their expectations.

Despite the in line with expectation results, most retailers were down today. All of which I discussed on the podcast were down as well, as were the funds. This is a good sign, considering that much of today was trading significantly in the green. If the market momentum as a whole can reverse here shortly, there could be some serious upside in shorting the retailers. Many of them are more than double their recent lows from back in February, which I believe is a much too quick of a bounce for many of them, especially in this environment.

Another ETF holding its own today was SRS. Yes, as of late it has been rather disappointing as many of the bear leveraged ETFs have been. However, it has recently shown a bit of strength, even in the midst of positive markets. It will take more than what we've seen the past couple of days, but I still believe, when the market turns, SRS should yield some strong gains for me. I have been to several meetings this week, concerning the commercial real estate market, and all of them have been extremely dismal and depressing.

More banter continues to go back and forth from Kenneth Lewis (B of A CEO) and The Fed. Lewis continues to accuse both Paulson and Bernanke of urging him to keep details of the Merrill Lynch acquisition private. This of course being after they received $50 billion in bailout funds. It is obvious there are thick strings attached to the bailout money and I believe we will see several other accusations arise along these lines. Now that Obama has in place a system to regulate these executive's salary, they may be slow to play by the rules for much longer.

Other than that, unfortunately, the markets aren't giving us much things to talk about as of recently. That will soon change. Also, many of you emailed asking me how to sign up for some of the videos I've posted on here. Here is a link, where you can sign up for them for free. Happy Trading.

9 comments:

  1. T-dog Says:

    FF,
    You can't argue with the action in SRS yesterday....It was a beast compared to other short ETF's. Have you actually bought shares yet ? or are you ? Or just buying options.
    Reits were apparently upgraded and I think this is the last ditch effort to keep them propped up for a little longer. Thoughts ?

  2. Yuba Says:

    FF,

    Can you foresee any big upward movement to the market caused by a major policy or news? Like you, I still firmly believe the drop has yet to come, but what's the catch?

    Thanks,

  3. Finance Fanatic Says:

    T-dog,
    I definitely feel that the buy on REITS is rubbish, anyone in the business knows that the worst is yet to come for them. They're time will come.

    Yuba,
    Sure there is the possibility, but I can't really see any more big moves until at least a pullback, even bulls are timid right now!

  4. Anonymous Says:

    What do you think of the gold, oil, minerals selloff, and bond + usd strengthening? Is this a foreshadow of deflation coming up or just profit taking?

  5. Anonymous Says:

    FF there was last week on Bloomberg TV a listing of several banks off balance sheet amounts .
    If I recall right a total of 1.8 Trillion.
    C has 160 billion losses.I don't remember the other banks.
    They said, the banks have to include these losses on their balance sheets in Jan. 2010, which means we would be back to undercapitalized banks again.
    Almost the same we had in March 2009.
    Now 16 banks talk to the Government to wave this 2010 deadline.
    Did you hear about this?
    What is your opinion?

  6. Anonymous Says:

    so much for a friday post, much less a weekend post

  7. Anonymous Says:

    for free posts, you can't really complain, but for those who pay, they must be feeling ripped off for this recent lack of updates and substance. FF, why don't you make the podcast free altogether?

  8. Finance Fanatic Says:

    Anon,
    I do 2-3 podcasts per week, and have met that since the beginning. As for the site, weekend updates will vary depending on my schedule... I think you need to remember that the site is a hobby and I have a full career outside of it, let alone a family. Plus, up until today, markets haven't given us much to talk about, let's hope that changes this week.

  9. MCM iPhone 6 Cases Says:

    No memory card slot; battery no longer removable; curved screen on Edge version leads to inadvertent taps and clicks; windowed multi-tasking works poorly.