1929 vs 2009 - Are We In A Depression?

great depressionMy answer is clearly, yes. Sure, you will never hear it on the popular airwaves such as CNBC or from Mr. Cramer, but I don't see how we don't call our current economic condition a depression. Putting aside the disaster in the stock market, there are still countless reasons supporting the notion that we are living in a depression. The government likes to announce such things several years after when we are out of the bad times on the way back up, but as for me, I'm calling it now...We're in a depression.

Comparing our current conditions to The Great Depression of the 1930's is much like comparing NBA players Kobe Bryant and Wilt Chamberlain. Both are many times considered as one of the best to play the game of basketball. Although Kobe's best scoring game is 81 points in one game, compared to Wilt's 100 points in a game, there are many that feel the 81 points was a more impressive number when analyzing the current conditions each of the players played in. I believe this scenario is much the same when comparing the two time periods of the 1930's to our present day.

Numerically, times looked a lot tougher back in the 1930's, but I have arguments to say that we have it just as bad. Sure, the biggest argument was that we reached almost 25% unemployment rate by 1932. Even though we are currently only lingering in the 8-11% region, depending on where you live, I still think that number is almost just as devastating in our current economy. Think of all the sectors and industries that have been created since the 1930's. We have countless numbers of opportunities available that were never even thought of at the time. I would think an unemployment number in the 15-17% range is comparably devastating to that of the 25% in the 1930's.

$100 Investor Bonus 300X250-2Preceding the most devastating years of the Great Depression were the banks failing in 1929. Following the collapse of banks in 1929, we saw GDP get increasingly worse from 8.6% in 1930, 6.4% in 1931, and then 13% in 1932. I believe the financial collapses we saw happen last year with Lehman, WAMU, AIG, Bear Stearns and others were even worse than those of 1929. We are already falling at similar numbers dealing with GDP, between 6-7%, so we mark very close in those numbers.

The Dow fell about 89% from its highs to lows by 1932. Even though on paper, we are between 55-60% down, many of the stocks that are in the Dow have fallen 90% or more and all at a much faster rate. It took 3 years before to make it fall, we're only in year 2.

So as you can see, I am not very optimistic for the time being with the conditions of our market. This doesn't mean that I can't make money. It just means that I need to be very careful on the moves I make, because in my mind, we're worse off than the 1930's. Even though we don't see it in the "slums", with massive homeless counts, the perfect storm that is over us is one that our country has never seen. We can thank our new government and the Fed for preventing many of the problems that existed in the 1930's, but similar problems remain.

At this point, I am sure that some old man is pointing his finger at me, saying "you don't know what it was like, I lived it, and nothing compares." Sure, that may be true, but from a numerical standpoint, we're not that far off. Scary times and I'm sorry to the old man.

So, these are reasons why I'm not jumping into the market right now or kicking myself in the face for not being more heavily loaded up on shorts. Sure, I would have loved to have been more beefed up to take advantage of the recent slaughtering that took place the past few weeks, but I have my reasons for not doing it and sometimes it is those reasons that save me from getting killed. I guess it's kind of like the old saying that the only 100% way to avoid STD's and pregnancy is by abstinence. Well, I'm currently abstinent from the stock market. This is a scary market to be playing right now, so I'm double crossing my T's.

Even with all this chaos, believe it or not, I still think a March rally is coming. I just don't think the market is ready to crash. Indeed when it is, some may think I'm crazy, but I think we could reach 300 S&P levels. I know, it seems crazy, but so did a 600 S&P level a year ago. If indeed we match those great depression numbers we are looking at 2-300 S&P levels and 2-3000 Dow levels. So, as you can probably tell, I'm not going long for a while. If indeed we do end up rallying, even 15-20%, this would even more solidify my feelings of a more severe crash, as it will be in alignment with many of the deflationary models. So for me, I try to tune out all of the nonsense playing on the TV (they're just trying to keep their jobs) and pay attention to the numbers.

Tomorrow is so, so critical. After the devastating response from bears today and the massive sell off, bulls are needing a rally tomorrow. Unfortunately, they have a big beast standing in their way called unemployment. Yes, the number will be bad. But we have seen in times past that bottoms are sometimes established on bad economic news days. Also, if by chance the number comes in better than expected (which I don't see likely), the market could take off very strongly in a rally.

So, yes, another very early day tomorrow. It has been frustrating waiting in the sidelines during all this craziness, but I believe it will pay off. My Zecco.com account is waiting to go short, I'm just waiting for the right time. I am still loving SRS though! I'm glad I stuck with it and SKF. SRS has a Market Club report score of +70! Very strong (get your own symbol analyzed for free, all you need is a name and email, Click Here)... So, we wait tomorrow. Have a good night, Happy Trading and see you tomorrow.

72 comments:

  1. Anonymous Says:

    Kudos on the Wilt-Kobe analogy!

  2. Finance Fanatic Says:

    Go Lakers!

  3. Anonymous Says:

    didnt you sell most of you srs at $80?

  4. Finance Fanatic Says:

    anon, I did sell most of my SRS at $80, but the little short I stayed in has been keeping me in the green during the past week.

  5. Anonymous Says:

    FF, Are you still in POT? I see it has come down 30% since it's Feb, 6 high. I'm thinking about picking some up. Either that or TNH which has the nice 10% dividend. What do you think?

    P.S I'm out of all my shorts and going long. Have a bunch of oil, gold and silver stocks. To a less extent some FAS (picking up more as it goes down since it's so cheap; not much money to loose if it keeps going down. I think of it as a speculative play). 50% of my money is in cash right now.

  6. Finance Fanatic Says:

    Newbie, no but it has been on my radar for quite some time now. I think energy and commodities are going to start creeping up again. Good call on the cash, I'm heavily cash as well.

    Good call on the TNH play, I'll look into more. Thanks

  7. Anonymous Says:

    would you buy srs again on a dip?

  8. Finance Fanatic Says:

    For sure... waiting for a nice big dip though, hopefully it comes

  9. Anonymous Says:

    It seams you have lost the last rally...

  10. Unknown Says:

    Hey FF, at this point are you still firm about your capitulation theory earlier? I know from your posts that you seem that way but don't you think governemtn intervention can change the playinig field entirely?

  11. james moylan Says:

    I have a web site where I research stocks under five dollars. I do not see many similarities between 2009 and 1929. nineteen twentynine was a massive deflation set in motion by the stock market crash. the 2009 panic was set in motion by the housing debacle.

  12. QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS Says:

    1929 is nothing like 2009 deflation was occuring on a widespread scale during the crash and into the 1930's. Today we are more concerned with inflation than deflation.

  13. Unknown Says:

    A replica handbags does not accredit to replica handbags absorption Swiss timekeeping but to the superior of the movement.A replica watch advised replica handbags may or may not accept its movement fabricated in Switzerland,but is acceptable to action the best accomplish in agreement of superior and value,complete of abstracts agnate to that active for the 18-carat architecture it is meant to duplicate.As may be surmised,Swiss replica watches amount added than added kinds,sometimes including azure crystals and added aboriginal components.Mostly buyers accept gucci replica these handbags not because of their adroit designs or quality,but because of their cachet attribute factor.Actually,amount of assembly such handbags is not that top and for this purpose,abounding articles are now accouterment bargain developer handbags to advice those girls who cannot allow such big-ticket handbags.These handbags are fabricated application the aforementioned top superior material,aforementioned bond techniques and accomplishment that they attending exact replica of their top replica shoes priced counterparts.Best of all,these handbags are accessible at actual bargain rates.This accord aberrant befalling to all individuals who are complex in affairs top superior custom handbags at bargain rates.Hence,you ability ambition to aboriginal of all apply a bright bright ideal the breed of look-alike bag you charge as able-bodied as chanel replica your funds in beforehand of surging in beforehand Aftreall it is absolutely harder to adjudge on a bag via array that appearance developer look-alike knockoff clutches,louis vuitton look-alike clutches,authority look-alike clutches,chanel clutches,developer bags,developer childhood bags,developer easily bags,developer afflicted accoutrements and added On such periods,you'll be able to dior replica abandon yourself for your appetite by opting to get broad look-alike claws and low amount look-alike claws The aboriginal affair you accept to in beforehand of affairs a bag is absolutely to backpack out a by appointment on the planet associated with look-alike claws.

  14. Unknown Says:

    Hi to all, the blog has really the dreadful information I really enjoyed a lot.emergency plumbers

  15. Gryffin Says:

    I also agree that we are in depression because I can feel that life is a lot more tougher. https://3cre-commercial-real-estate.business.site/

  16. Nicole Says:

    I believe so that we are really having a depression. https://www.kansascitymoldremovalservices.com/

  17. joeanderson Says:

    Some experts say investing in a stock market today is not practical that's why I do plaster repair for a living.

  18. Anonymous Says:

    I didn't expect that high percent of unemployed people in the 1930's. www.sandiegomoldremovalservices.com/

  19. Anonymous Says:

    This is really a good blog.
    www.applyrite.com/

  20. Anonymous Says:

    Wow! amazing blog content. Thanks for sharing | propilotplaybook.com/

  21. wcitv.com Says:

    Nice article! Very helpful.

  22. Janwil Says:

    Great blog you shared here. roofingprosgarland.com

  23. Nicole Says:

    I needed to thank you for this incredible read, it makes me want to read more

  24. Anonymous Says:

    An in-depth discussion about the economic issues. garbage service East Twickenham

  25. Anonymous Says:

    1929 - 2009 has been a long time to gone through the economic crisis.. waste removal West Ham

  26. Anonymous Says:

    Some opportunities lie in every problem. junk removal Kingston upon Thames

  27. Anonymous Says:

    Oh! This is surprising. towing service Wapping

  28. Anonymous Says:

    I agree with you that we need to make smart move in regards to our money. fence contractors Willenhall

  29. Anonymous Says:

    A big help to those who want to invest in the stock market. windscreen repair Hackney

  30. Anonymous Says:

    Due to the pandemic, the economy faced a problem. windscreen service Canterbury

  31. Anonymous Says:

    Oh! This is a thoughts to ponder. bathroom installation De Beauvoir Town

  32. Anonymous Says:

    Not everybody know about this. Thanks for sharing painters in North Finchley

  33. Anonymous Says:

    Promise yourself to excel in 2022. kitchen renovation Dalston

  34. Kyzer Says:

    Thanks for this awesome blog you shared. https://www.santacruzup.com/

  35. best drywall repair Says:

    Even though we are currently only lingering in the 8-11% region, depending on where you live, I still think that number is almost just as devastating in our current economy.

  36. Anna Says:

    Great information you shared here. https://www.apexpowerandlight.com/

  37. see here Says:

    We have countless numbers of opportunities available that were never even thought of at the time.

  38. jack102 Says:

    We are most definitely in a depression now. Buy gold/silver and protect your wealth as best you can.
    Jon

  39. Harry Says:

    Freelance App Developer Dubai

  40. Anonymous Says:

    Great post, a thought to ponder! Thank you for sharing.
    https://www.excavationdoneright.com/excavation-contractors-clarksville-tn

  41. Anonymous Says:

    As a drywall professional, We can thank our new government and the Fed for preventing many of the problems that existed in our town but similar problems still remain.

  42. radon gas removal Says:

    I believe this scenario is much the same when comparing the two time periods of the 1930's to our present day.

  43. jack102 Says:

    Definitely in a global depression now.
    Ace Removals

  44. Mitch Says:

    Thanks for this great stuff you shared. https://www.carpetmasteronline.com/

  45. Anonymous Says:

    Happy to visit this one, Keep on posting. https://www.bakersfieldhomepainters.com/

  46. Anonymous Says:

    Didn't you sell most of your srs at $80? https://www.columbusdrywallpros is very curious to know.

  47. Nestor Hernandez Says:

    It's really scary that we might be facing another situation like this really soon, I just hope that nobody loses their business over this.

    I would like to recommend the best Car Detailing in Mesa AZ

  48. Anonymous Says:

    A lot happened all through these years, right?

    Johnny | Atlanta Drywall Contractors

  49. Unknown Says:

    Thanks for taking the time in sharing this information here. hathawayenvironmental.com/

  50. Orlando Tree Services Says:

    Very much appreciated. Thank you for this excellent article. Keep posting!

  51. Greg Says:

    Kudos on the Wilt-Kobe analogy!

    Greg | how to texture drywall

  52. Zub Says:

    The Great Depression was caused by a combination of factors, including the stock market crash, bank failures, and a decrease in consumer spending. In contrast, the economic recession of 2008-2009 was caused by the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis.

    Anyway, get the best tiling services in Victoria from this company: tilingvictoria.ca.

  53. Anonymous Says:

    "Thank you very much for this wonderful topic!

    https://rdlandscapingcompany.com

    '"


  54. HaruEdwards Says:

    It's important to note that economic assessments and comparisons can vary among individuals and experts. Economic conditions can be complex and multifaceted, influenced by a wide range of factors. While you have presented your reasoning based on numerical indicators, it's essential to consider a comprehensive analysis of the economy, including various indicators and factors that contribute to its overall health. https://ibisegozi.com/

  55. SEO Tampa Says:

    It's too early to say for sure. The economy is still recovering from the Great Recession, and it's possible that we could experience another depression. However, there are some key differences between the current economic situation and the situations that led to the Great Depression and the Great Recession. For example, the banking system is much more stable today than it was in the 1920s and 2000s. Additionally, the government is taking steps to prevent another financial crisis.

  56. Anonymous Says:

    Thank you for this amazing blog!
    Electrician In Red Deer/a>

  57. Ethan Says:

    Your analysis appears to reflect a cautious and bearish sentiment regarding the state of the economy and the stock market, with a focus on economic indicators and market conditions. Keep in mind that economic and market conditions can change rapidly, and it's important to stay informed and adapt your investment strategy accordingly. https://superiorconcreteandexcavation.com/

  58. Ethan Says:

    It's clear that you have a cautious outlook on the market and are closely monitoring economic indicators to inform your investment decisions. Please note that financial markets are complex, and individual investment decisions should consider a wide range of factors, including one's risk tolerance, financial goals, and the broader economic landscape. www.excavatingcincinnati.com

  59. Demolition Contractors Says:

    This analysis appears to reflect a cautious and is clear that you are closely monitoring the market. These marketing are very complex and can change literally any moment too , be careful!

    Demolition Contractors

  60. Kyzer Says:

    Awesome post! Thanks for keeping us here updated with new content. Zion Roof Pros Roof Replacement

  61. RyeD Says:

    Glad to check this awesome site. Great work! concreters

  62. Unknown Says:

    Your perspective reflects a cautious and analytical approach to the current economic situation, taking into account historical parallels and potential market movements. It's clear that you place emphasis on economic data and maintain a watchful stance in the market. cincinnatiseo.org/

  63. Collierville Concrete Company concrete contractor Says:

    It's nice seeing this awesome post here.

  64. Peedee Visuals Says:

    Your statement raises a crucial and timely debate about the state of the economy. While labeling it a "depression" might be premature, your concerns about economic hardship and rising inequality are justified.

  65. https://dahlcore.com/ Says:

    https://dahlcore.com/
    I'm glad to hear that you have a new promo video showcasing your security services in various locations, including Staten Island, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, Bronx, and Long Island. Promotional videos can be an effective way to showcase your services and reach a wider audience.

    If you'd like to promote your YouTube channel and video, you can consider sharing it on social media platforms, your website, and other relevant online communities. This can help increase visibility and attract subscribers who are interested in your security services. Additionally, engaging with your audience through comments and interactions on your channel can foster a sense of community and loyalty among your subscribers. Good luck with your promotional efforts!

  66. George Says:

    I'm thinking about picking some up for our drywall installer. Either that or TNH which has the nice 10% dividend. What do you think?

  67. Unknown Says:

    This is a scary market to be playing right now,
    home contractor home remodeling pros

  68. Anonymous Says:

    It's a great site to visit, thanks for this post. soundproof plastering

  69. Kerstin Says:

    Thanks for this awesome content. branded coffee cups

  70. painters geelong Says:

    Very impressive post. Great share!

  71. Anonymous Says:

    This is amazing! It's a great shared post. plastering

  72. Anonymous Says:

    Thanks for the informative content you shared. branded coffee cups