Subscribe RSS Feed
Bears Hibernate While Bulls Fight Through Unemployment Numbers
Posted On Friday, December 5, 2008 at at 1:15 PM by Finance Fanatic
Well, it seems as if the bears have called it quits for the time being and are letting the bulls have their fun. Not even having the job loss report by 233,000 more than the market expected can cause a bear victory for the day. I'll give you one thing, Friday's are hard to paint red.
Unemployment jumped to 6.7% from last month's 6.5%. This was 1% lower than market expectation. Many believe this is because many of the college students have just gone back to school, so they are not considered. Even though we have seen big strength in buying this week, I still feel that this trend will be short lived. For whatever reasons, this market is getting shoved up everyday despite very bad news. And I laugh at headlines like the one I saw on cnbc that say "Despite Huge Job Losses, The Worse Could Be Over." I am amazed that headlines like that exist on respectable sites. No one, including myself, has lived through the kind of downfall our economy will experience the next few years. The perfect storm that has combined is one that is yet to be seen in our economic past and to try and predict the bottom of it is pointless. I just don't think we are not even near to it.
After today, the market has proven that its going to fight this out. Now how long will that last? Graphically speaking, we could see this rally go somewhere between 9200-9500, and maybe even more. We will probably see it continue to climb up until the end of the year. Then we will hit January.
January should be an interesting month. This is the month I believe we will start to see a lot of crap hit the fan. I already know of 3 major retailers/restaurants, who have not yet announced, that will be going bankrupt Q1 2009. Even with Obama coming in, which I believe we will get a little rally before and after. But ultimately, I believe this is when the bears will wake up again.
I still feel we are very vulnerable for very bad sell off days like we saw this past Monday, which makes me hesitant to buy anything long. So I have accepted the fact that I may just continue to take some losses the next few weeks. I don't mind hibernating with the rest of the bears until the markets ready.
I have heard many people speculate that we could have reached the bottom and that the worst is over. However there are many reasons that I disagree with this. Here are some reasons why:
1) Housing market is still in the Pits
We should not be confident that anything is getting better as long as our housing market struggles. People underestimate just how important that number is. Housing values are the number one driver of consumer sentiment, because in most cases it is people's biggest investment. All across the county, most people's biggest "deal" has lost anywhere from 20-40%, depending on the market. That takes a lot out of peoples expectations. As long as our housing market remains in the gutter (which our most recent numbers have confirmed), I believe we are not done hurting.
2) Many retailers plan to go bankrupt next year
Think of hundreds of mini GM scenarios going across the country. Even though many of these retailers will not have the giant influences that the big 3 autos do, they still will do their damage. They have people that rely on their pension, and laborers across the country. With the continuing loss of small and large businesses, I don't think you can call now the bottom.
3) Commercial real estate foreclosures
This could be one of the biggest factors. Look what the initial sub prime crisis did to the market from 2007 to 2008. Well, commercial real estate is running about a year behind them. We have just begun to see foreclosures begin in the commercial market. These are going to pile up in 2009. The amount of debt that will be handed back to banks is unreal. It will be World War 3 when that happens, which makes me feel we're not at the bottom.
4) Beginning of the year blues
Historically, the stock market can have very bad months in the beginning of the year. Due to taxes, year end expenses, new years budgets and other elements, the beginning of the year can cause a blood bath for the stock market. Considering that we have just spent that past three usual bull months (except for the last week) in misery, doesn't make me think that will change when we get to the new year. Even after Obama is inaugurated, there will be plenty of things to going awry to make this market suffer.
So these are my thoughts on considering whether we have hit bottom. Although I feel that we could see a lot of green the next few weeks, I still think it will be short lived. I believe in the beginning of the 2009, the bears are going to wake back up and they're going to be hungry. So keep on your toes, get your cash in order, if you don't have a trading account, you can sign up for one and get free trades every month at Zecco.com. Also, for those that have cashed out and are waiting for definition in the market, these guys are offering a good savings account deal with strong interest and FDIC insured. See more at Earn 3.00% APY* in Online Savings.
Just to remind everyone, SRS is under $100. So see, there are many things to be excited about. It is Black Friday for the shorts for the next couple of weeks. Get them while they're hot! I hope everyone has a good weekend. Mondays have tended to be a selling day, but who knows what information will come out this weekend. Happy Trading everyone.
i feel retarded for being so deep in SRS at $140. I guess I'll be trying to cost average it down this month then.
Keep blogging you are phenomenal!
SRS at $140 seems so far away. I'm in FXP at $84 -- which seemed like a great place to be at one point. I suspect China is cooking the books or worse, but there's no one that will stop them, so they may start to look good again on paper soon -- blatant lie though it may be.
But I can't fathom what's wrong with SRS. Real estate is hosed, boned, *and* fubar'ed, and everyone knows it. There are still tons of loans to go bad, tons of foreclosures, etc, etc. I just don't get that one.
FF: Where can I look at SRS's specific holdings, and find out more detailed information about it in general? Yahoo Finance has a page for holdings but it is almost empty for SRS. Is there somewhere else I can look?
FF - thanks for a great site/perspective on things.
D, SRS nav info on the proshares website: http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html. there's a csv download there somewhere.
I know guys I can fell your pain :).I wanted to jump on DIG today and I will jump on it after February , probably.
Yes , it's tough going SRS now like D said , nothing is plausible anymore.Who knows???Nobody!!I jumped on F today picked it at 2,65 gonna drop it really fast when it hits above 3,00.
Got M on Tuesday , if I remember correctly , at 6,90 , sold the same day for 7,10.Got in again yesterday at 7,80 sold today at 8,20 , should've waited for the bulls to come in.Look at me , I'm a day trader , lol!!!This how I play at least nowadays.If it goes down big , I'll hold it , I still hold BAC for 17,something so.....
On a more serious note I also think that after February and probably 3rd Q there will be a lot of bargains out there.I don't think however , as the original blogger , that the end is the near.This is the most powerful economy in the world , if we go down the others are long gone already.
I still believe that you can probably retire next year if you play it right this spring and with enough cash of course.
I mean , c'mon guys , do you think ppl will stop eating , bathing , buying LCD's and all that?I doubt that.
My thoughts are to apply for big cc's in the spring , like 30-50k a cc without interest for a year , and get all that in the market and just wait for next fall.If I'm lucky I'm a Carribean citizen in 2011 :).If I loose I put stop losses at 50% on all of them and start all over :).
Look at the big boys , BAC , CAT , BA c'mon guys these prices will never be here at least for the next 15 years.
Just my .02 cents.
Great Posts. S, I agree with you that we probably won't see our economy hit bottom until at least q3 or q4 in 2009 (probably 2010), but I do feel the stock market will bottom out months earlier, as Wall Street tends to be a bit ahead of the game usually. I also agree that there are some great buys for the hike back up. Some good money will be made. Good insights folks.
doesnt sound like anyone's using margins? even if those that keep avg'g down, how do u keep from the eventual/possible margin calls, if market doesnt go back up quickly? thanks ...btw, FF great blog, love your perspective and thought process.
I have a web site where I give advise on penny stocks and stocks under five dollars. I have many years of experience with these type of stocks. If their is anyone that is interested in these type of stocks you can check ouy my web site by just clicking my name. I would like to comment. I do not think that we will see real improvement in the economy until we see sustainable job growth. Recently the number of jobs created has been running around two hundred thousand a month. The GDP report that just came out recently was only 2% this is not nearly high enough to sustain employment growth of two hundred thousand jobs a month. Another factor holding things back is stagnation of wages and benifits. This is good for business owners but terrible news for workers.
.
For sure... waiting for a nice big dip though, hopefully it comes
Boating is one of my favorite activity and I hope many people around the world enjoy this especially at seaside. Students after the completion of their education look for jobs so they can get www.grabmyessayonline.com - trusted custom writing sevice to give extraordinary look to their resumes and feel free from all worries.
many blog posts do not like this provide a useful article for visitors thanks admin
jaket kulit pria
I really like your writing so so much! percentage we be in contact more about your article on Digital tickets I require an expert on this space to solve my problem. May be that is you!
press release distribution India
http://www.newsvoir.com/press-release-distribution.html
folkstatus
folkstatus
folkstatus
folkstatus
Remove .micro file extension which very harmful for the PC. It is able to encrypt all files for earning ransom. It hold your file to lock and make all inaccessible for you it means that you can't open your files after locking by it. Remove .micro file extension
Delete .micro file extension that lock your files and don't allow you to open file again until you don't pay ransom.Delete .micro file extesion
Get Rid of .micro file extension
Eliminate .micro file extension
Clean .micro file extension
Block .micro file extension
Delete .micro file extension
Very nice post. I simply stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I’ve truly enjoyed surfing around your weblog posts. In any case I will be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you write once more soon!
Holi 2016 Wishes
Holi Hardik Shubhkamana Sandesh
Holi Catoon Animated Pictures
Holi Whatsapp Status
Holika Dahan Shubh Muhurat 2016
Holi Hindi Romantic Shayari
AIPMT 2016 Result
UP Polytechnic 2016 Result
Holi Hot Sexy Images
Happy Holi Cards 2016
Holi Hindi Shayari
Holi SMS
Holi Funny Pictures
UPTET Result 2016
UPTET Result
REET Result 2015
REET Result
Holi Messages Wishes Sms , Holi 2016 , Happy Holi , Facebook Whatsapp Status , Holi 2016 Images ,
Holi
Happy Holi Images , Happy Holi Pictures , Happy Holi Greeting , Happy Holi Wallpapers , Happy Holi Wishes , Happy Holi Sms , Happy Holi Quotes , Happy Holi Messages , Happy Holi Song ,
Happy Holi 2016 , Happy Holi 2016 Messages , Happy Holi 2016 Sms , Happy Holi 2016 Pics HD Images Ecards , Happy Holi 2016 Messages Msg Hindi Quotes Sms
Holi 2016 , Happy Holi Messages , Happy Holi Sms
Happy Holi , Holi 2016 Messages , Holi Sms
Happy mothers day
Mother's day
mothers day
when is mothers day
mothers day quotes
happy mothers day images
mothers day date
mother day
mothers day poems
happy mothers day quotes
happy mother's day
mothers day messages
mothers day messages
happy mother's day
happy mothers day quotes
mothers day poems
mother day
mothers day date
happy mothers day images
mothers day quotes
when is mothers day
mothers day
Mother's day
Happy mothers day
Earth Day Celebrations Ideas At Home Office And Schools is a really ncie post on earth day. please read it
Earth Day Celebrations Ideas At Home Office And Schools is a really ncie post on earth day. please read it
Quick and easy techniques to delete harmful computer viruses from the infected PC. Removing malware is now very easy with these techniques.Visit : http://www.removeuninstallvirus.com/windows-xp/get-rid-of-crashoverride-successfully
They have to put everything on hold otherwise they will go bankrupt. www.shopedc.com
I like the content of this blog, very interesting one. roofingprosgarland.com
Thank you for sharing this great blog on this site. anchorirrigation.com/
Awesome post! Glad to check this site. https://www.simplepricemovingllc.com/
Thanks for sharing this one. https://www.drivewayshastings.co.uk/
Such a great site to visit. Great work! https://www.ctrroof.com/
Would love to see more informative blog here. sandybathtubrefinishing.com/
Thank you so much to writing this wonderful blog. It’s really worthwhile.
Despite the bearish outlook, let's keep a joyful spirit and remember that the market can be full of surprises. Who knows, the bulls will continue to defy expectations and lead us to a brighter future!
I found it to be misleading and potentially harmful. The title suggests a strategy focused on profiting from market crashes, which can be risky and speculative for inexperienced investors. It's crucial to approach the stock market with a long-term perspective, diversified portfolio, and sound investment principles rather than relying on short-term market volatility.
"
very informative article!!! thank you so much!
Accountants Grande Prairie
"
"Very good article. Thank you!
Plastic Surgery Shreveport"
Thanks for making this content so informative!
Tree Service San Jose CA
It seems like you've provided a comprehensive analysis of the current economic situation and your outlook on the stock market. Your observations on the unemployment rate, potential bankruptcies in the retail sector, commercial real estate foreclosures, and the historical trends in the beginning of the year are thoughtful considerations. https://www.poolcleaningservicesatlanta.com/
Glad to check this site, it's very informative one.
It sounds like you're reflecting on the market's behavior during a turbulent economic period, likely around the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Your analysis captures the tension between the market's surprising resilience (bulls) and the underlying economic challenges (bears). Even with worsening unemployment and other negative indicators, the market seemed determined to rally, leading to a disconnect between market performance and economic reality. https://infinityoutdoorsnc.com/
Intriguing analogy!
The juxtaposition of hibernating bears and battling bulls is a clever way to illustrate the contrasting market behaviors. It's clear that the current economic climate is presenting unique challenges.
roofing jobs in Cincinnati Ohio
This analysis underscores the complexity of market dynamics, where economic indicators and market sentiment can diverge, and the importance of a cautious investment strategy during uncertain times. about
Thank you for the great blog you shared. Roofing contractor
Great stuff you shared!