Don't Want GM? Try This Auto Giant

TTM Indian stock
GM has recently been stealing the spotlight from many other auto companies. Auto sales seemed to have endured rather well, especially this past year. Though many mainstream auto companies don't interest me that much at this time, there is an emerging auto company that is making a lot of noise.

India has 12 cars per thousand people, which seems like nothing when compared to the US's number of 842 cars per thousand. For India, this number is rapidly growing every year and has plenty of room to keep growing.

Tata Motors (TTM) (yes, I'm sure there were many who giggled at the name) is the largest Automobile maker in India, building buses, tractors, trucks, and passenger cars. The company owns 60% of India's marketshare and has a rather strong buying pool outside of the country as well.

In 2009, TTM stock returned over 281% to its investors and in 2010, the stock is up over 90% so far. Indeed, as is the case with many emerging markets, the stock is very volatile, but when looking at the chart (above), you can see the MACD is leveling out and should be due for yet another jump in price, if the recent trend continues. With the US economy still questionable at this point, India is not a bad place to look for some alternatives.

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Is GM a Good Buy?

gm stock chart
Much has been made of the largest IPO in history...General Motors (GM). After their brief time away from Wall Street (Bankruptcy), they have been able to rearrange their liabilities column to hopefully be able to survive the rest of the storm. Of course there have been many large companies that have been able to take the road of bankruptcy, only to come back stronger, however, I am not sure GM will be one of them.

First of all, they have been out competed the last 10 years to the Japanese in the construction of automobiles. Sure, they do get their "American" made claim to their brand with their big trucks and SUVS, however, as consumers tighten their budget, they shop for efficiency and longevity. All signs point to Japanese in that regard. Now, GM is attempting to re-brand themselves into a competitive brand to the Japanese, while still trying to keep their loyal "American Only" customers. At any rate, their stock seems to be gaining a bit of momentum in the short term (see graph above), however, if post holiday stock woes are in our midst, this trend can quickly change. In my next post, I will discuss an auto stock (Indian) that is definitely worth noting and watching. Happy Trading.

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New Chinese IPO to Look At

bita ipo
With all the hype of the recent GM IPO after their short vacation away from Wall Street while in bankruptcy, I believe this Chinese IPO has been overlooked.

China is the largest customer for vehicle purchases and their number one source to purchase vehicles are through online vendors. Last year, online vendors attracted 140 million unique visitors, which was up from 29 million in 2005. Bitauto (BITA) is the largest online vendor that services vehicle information in China. On Wednesday, Bitauto issued 10.6 million shares to the NASDAQ for $12 per share.

Since going public, there has been some downward pressure on the stock price and volume has remained relatively low.

As with many Chinese public stocks, BITA carries risk. It has a higher forward multiple, which is typical for Chinese companies. Due to the recent release of shares, their market cap has been put to $492 million. Once this company gets some more exposure, I would not be surprised to see some strong, positive movement.

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Uptrend for Gold

gold spot forex
Nice solid movement coming from the Gold Spot (Forex XAUUSDO). Good regression line and also a pretty solid crossover on the MACD. Definitely a beginning of a good uptrend. Markets rallying pretty good today, which should continue the last hour. I would not be surprised to see half of the profits returned tomorrow as many got a nice little pop today.

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Stocks on the Move

IMGG stockIt seems as though Wall Street approves of the latest changes in politics that took place on Tuesday. The Dow enjoyed a 200+ point move today as investors seem to have a bit of optimism. In reality, there is little that the changes will be able to do. Sure, efficient incentives and policies can mitigate damages done to the economy and ease the pain, but the careless management and banking that has taken place the past 10 years cannot be erased by the signing of a pen or printing new money. It will take a lot of time and, unfortunately, pain.

Last year I discussed a penny stock with you that I had invested in and seen a great deal of success. The company is Imaging3 (IMGG). We were able to buy into this stock a $0.05, where the stock remained at for a few years. Well, last year, rumors of a near FDA deal caused for the stock to leap the the near $2.00 range, which we then opted to sell all of our shares. I have dealt with FDA pending stocks before, and history has shown me that it is much better to get out on the hype then to roll the dice on whether it really happens. Well, in this case, it was a wise decision.

This past week, IMGG had a shareholder conference call in which they announced that their application for FDA was rejected which greatly surprised IMGG management. Much of their notes, related to administrative deficiencies more so than actual performance of their product. You could sense the frustration of the CEO in not knowing exactly why it happened. As a result, the stock has now plummeted back down to the near $0.10.

Sure, the news is frustrating for investors, but this does not mean they will not get approval. In fact, the stock price is starting to become very appealing for re-entry at this point, as it is clear they will continue to fight for FDA approval. If it becomes clear that once again they are near that approval, I expect the stock to react much like it did the first time around. So, IMGG is definitely on the hot watch list for me and anymore decay in its price will force me to have to make a move.

First Friday of the month coming this week, which you know what that means...Unemployment data. Once again, unemployment will act as the main driver of sentiment in the marketplace and until we can consistently start to reduce that number, massive problems will still be in our midst. Anyway, look for this political rally to quickly be squashed of the numbers come in disappointing. Happy Trading.

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With Voting - Expect Volatility

stocks voting boothWe have reached yet another November 2nd voting day and I expect to see some fireworks that usually accompany the day. It is been estimated that Wall Street has already factored in the expected "change of power" that is to take place with a Republican victory, however that may not be the result. If it is not the result, I would definitely expect to see a big drop in markets, financials especially.

We are starting to see some unique transactions that are new to this cycle that we saw in the 90's. This is the trading of distressed and performing notes from one bank to another. Banks benefit greatly to profit off of written down loans from other institutions. For the selling bank, there is not much net effect as the asset has already been written down following an appraisal. If this action is reversely repeated, then it can turn out to be quite beneficial and profitable for banks.

So what does this mean for the economy. Well, banks making money does not necessarily mean a healthy economy. Sure, we need the banks to be liquid and healthy, however, banks have been making record profits the past year and as for the commercial lending market, well, it remains pretty frozen. In fact, providing a route for banks to be so profitable without having to lend, may come back to bite us in the near future. As of now, banks are able to borrow 12 times the dollar you deposit and put them in treasuries, yielding a sub 3% return when they only have to pay you 0.45% on your dollar. When you do the math, you can quickly see how profits are piling up.

As of now, the profits are severely needed and banks are pacing their disposal of distressed properties at what they perceive a healthy rate to coexist with their profits. This is why a defaulted loan may get ignored for a year, only to have a speedy eviction notice pop up one day. The question is, when banks begin to become more balanced, will we begin to see lending occur. Why should the bank take on that kind of risk for profits that are pennies compared to their current arrangement. You can quickly see the paradox that exists.

We will know by tonight, whether or not big movements will be made. Either way, history tells us that day after voting days are usually a bit more volatile than the rest. No matter what happens, new uncertainty is created, which in turn shakes investor confidence a bit. So it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

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