Fed Tests Wall Street for Auto "Orderly Bankruptcy" - Market Responds

Well, yet another day of selling persisted today as there was much noise going on behind the scenes that Wall Street was not too fond of. Also, tomorrow plans to be a very, very crucial day for the market as we may see a pivotal position taken by closing time.

I think it has been 8 weeeks straight now that we have ended on a Friday with pretty strong rallies. This has been a strong trend with the market and has been a defining trend to continuing the rally. Tomorrow acts as a pivotal day of where the market may head in the future. Mechanics of the market say if the S&P stays below 920 by close tomorrow, watch out. Graph technicals show that if the S&P pushes us above 920, we could rally another 800 points. They also show that if we remain below that level, we could see a pretty strong spiral downward to end the year. These are technical trends, so take them how you may, but tmany times they can be great guides to momentum of the market. So keep your eye on that magic number.

Putting technicals aside, even if we break the trend of ending the week with a rally, could be pretty devastating for the market in its current fragile state. So, as I said in the beginning, tomorrow acts as a very important day. I personally don't see them making the threshold. With global woes continuing and now, the talks of an "orderly bankruptcy" for the autos, I find it tough for the market to end with a bang. Who knows though, I have been quite surprised before the past few weeks.

Commodities did bad today due to the increase in the dollar. Bank reserves were raised in Europe, which was an interesting move, since that usually significantly reduces lending. In return, the dollar had a big gain today, driving down gold, oil, and other commodity prices. I still love Gold for the long run, and at these levels cannot say no to oil too. I plan on picking up some DIG shares and putting them in my IRA. You can open up an IRA and get free monthly trades at Zecco.com.

The Fed tested the market today by throwing the idea out there to have an orderly or a pre packaged bankruptcy for the autos, which is essentially going bankrupt while having your hand held by the government. If this does indeed go through, wow, this could be bad. Even being a pre packaged bankruptcy would result in severe job loss and even more woes for the US economy. I do believe it is the best thing for the autos, I just also believe Wall Street will severally suffer from it. I see little chance for Chrysler even surviving, which I do not grieve that much. They always struggled with making cars and really do not have much of a future. It will be interesting to see if they really go through with it.

SRS soared today, as I expected, and I was able to pick some up at $57, which made me loving it when it closed at $65.75. Even though I have never been too worried about this fund, it is always rewarding when it has a 15% up day.

I still think Apple is under bought right now, even with the downgrade this week. The fact is they have huge cash positions. This is king in this market. Because of their cash, they will have strong negotiations and ability to sustain, even during a tougher time. I play "longer" options (usually expiring 4 months) out with apple, to give it time to come back up before I sell.

Well, set your alarms and wake up early tomorrow, because it's an important day. If it looks to be a down day, I may make one last buying round in SRS and even FXP. If it dares to be a big long day, maybe I will pick up some more GDX, DIG, or even UYG. It will have to be a really good day for the market though. Have a good evening, Happy Trading and we will see you tomorrow.

9 comments:

  1. Mac Says:

    I really screwed up today. I was eyeballing SRS and was waiting for it to sink to around 50. Of course, it skyrocketed, and now I'm kicking myself.

    Do you think current level ($65) is still a good buy?

    What impact do you think the super-low interest rates and the refinancing frenzy will have to the general real estate market?

    Thanks for you excellent publication! Your insight is most appreciated.

  2. Finance Fanatic Says:

    Mac, I personally have liked SRS ever since it was under $100. I feel that the REITS, which SRS mostly follows will struggle severely as next year hits and several major retailers declare bankruptcy. Commercial real estate has a ways before it gets turned around, so I don't think the rate cut will effect it that much. Those are just my thoughts.

  3. Lama Trout Trader Says:

    Since there has been a nice support/resistance line around 900, and maybe another in the 870 area, why do you feel that a close below 920 could start a spiral down?

    I've only been getting into technical analysis the last few months, so I have lots to learn. I'm wondering what you see specifically. I've been working mainly with candlesticks.

  4. Anonymous Says:

    I am just blown away by how fickle the marked is right now. At least we have Crash Market Stocks, since subscribing to this blog I'm actually making money again... Thanks!

  5. Anonymous Says:

    not a good day for srs. any explanation why? otherwise, i thought today was quite bearish, with an initial rally on the auto bailout news coming undone later. the dow is sitting on a support line though right now. do you think it'll go lower next week?

  6. Finance Fanatic Says:

    I believe SRS has been hurt here in the short term with recent rate cut as well as CITI shopping some of GGP's retail centers. GGP was up over 8% today. Its all speculation in my mind, and I love being able to buy it at this low price.

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