Consumer Confidence Gets Killed, Yet Market Still Buys

crazy marketI thought this picture would be appropriate, as this is what I think investors are doing who feel like it is time to buy. Wow, today smelled a lot like manipulation again. Maybe the Fed felt like they had seen enough red lately. Whatever the case, the market had no business being up over 2% today. By the way, since we have been discussing Lending Club lately, the P2P lending site that can generate 10%+ returns, I saw that they were featured on CBS news, see here. I plan on lending just a little at first to see how it works. I will keep you all updated. As CNBC headlines said today, stocks are probably not the place to look to make money for 2009, unless your short (in my opinion), so I encourage any other options that can bring me good returns.

Well, Uncle Sam extended their arm again today to the dying American autos, which seems to be the cause of the buying spark today. I don't know how people take this as good news. Late last night, the Bush administration allocated 6 billion dollars to GMAC, GM's equity in auto to help in assisting to better their bottom lines. Now, GM claims to be able to give loans to lower credit customers and issue car loans anywhere from 75-80% LTV, compared to their recent 40%. Ha, we will see about that and just how long that lasts.

Tech had strong gains, as they seemed to have been killed the past week. I still think tech is one of the most vulnerable to this worsening market, as most technologies are a luxury. People will probably not by that extra computer, or the suped up processor chip this year. It's back to basics for me and my IRA for 2009. McDonald's, Wal Mart, and Johnson & Johnson are some of the only companies I dare hold long for the beginning half of 2009.

Of course, people choose to ignore other news, that in my opinion, affect our economy far greater than people's ability to getter better loans on a new Suburban. Consumer confidence fell to a record low in December, having the index fall to 38 from 44.7 from November's numbers. This is largely due to the huge job loss we have seen the past month. As layoffs are sure to continue, I expect the confidence to get even worse. Yes, even with Mr. Obama at the helm. Employers chopped 533,000 jobs in November alone, the most in 34 years. Yet, there are some out there that feel it is time to buy. Go on ahead. I can't even begin to think why that is the case. We have some serious tough times ahead of us.

Not only did that hurt, but the prices of US single-family homes in October fell 18% from last year! So this surely squelches some people's hopes that maybe the housing market was reaching close to bottom. I think not. I have said it before and I will say it again, the housing market led us into this catastrophe and I believe it will lead us out. I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel as long as housing prices remain at record lows.

So we move on. I think today was just a short term fluke, as people cheered Uncle Sam's intervention and hope for more. These days can be crippling to the market in the long term, as I feel some people are duped into buying, even though there are serious negative data released that needs to eventually be factored in. Oh well, you never know. Investors may entirely ignore these continual, harsh economic conditions, but I very much doubt it.

I expect to start seeing some serious drops in the Dow the next couple of weeks, before we start to work through Obama's honeymoon. As we grow nearer, I will probably look to pick up some longs to ride that short bubble and pick up some quick gains, but we'll dive more into that as we get closer. Have a good night everyone, Happy Trading and have a good evening.

3 comments:

  1. Dinadur Says:

    In case you SRS fans missed it:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/31/business/31office.html?_r=1

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