Mixed Trading...Mixed Emotions

It was interesting to watch the Dow move up and down today, as it seemed to react in the exact same way I was feeling. I was definitely torn coming into today about where the market was going to head. There looked to be a variety of forces on each side and it resulted in me teeter-tottering back in forth from Bull to Bear. In the end, I compromised and tried to fulfill both of my desires. So, it was very comical to me to see the market trade today exactly how I felt. I guess I was not alone in my identity crisis. In the end it worked out for me and hopefully I have set myself up in a good position for either way the market decides to go tomorrow.

I found some extra time today than I usually have, so I enjoyed being on the chat (right sidebar) with many of you and discussing the mid-day movements. If you haven't already, definitely check it out during the day as there are a variety of intelligent people on there sharing good thoughts and strategies.

So I ended up selling a lot of SRS as it hit $80 today. I of course have plenty of shares left, I just felt this was good time in the market to take some profits. A lot of this I kept in cash, but I did pick up some FAS at $5.60 and believe it or not, a bit of LVS at $2.95 for my Vegas fix. Both have pretty strict stop losses in case of a crash. I still am not sure who will win the battle of technicals and emotions in the market, but I don't want to be caught naked on either side it decides to turn. I would tally today's trading to the bears, as with all the news, they were able to keep the trading in the red for most of the day, even with some violent spurts that looked dangerous, but were quickly smacked down back into the red. So another victory for bears tomorrow and most likely technicals will have been overruled and that can be a very dangerous position for the market.

I am still not ruling out the strong possibility for a pretty violent rally this week. I know many of you feel that there is no news that could spark such a rally. There doesn't necessarily have to be any moves, especially when you are dealing with a technical rally. There was no news in November, when we hit our original lows and pulled a huge u-turn and ended up over 3% the same day. So, I continue guarded in case of the rally, but still have a bulk of my portfolio in cash and shorts for the time being. RIMM going any lower and I will be looking to pick up some options.

I was not impressed with Obama's speech today. After cutting through all of the BS from the beginning (it felt like one of his rallies from his campaign), there once again wasn't much encouraging information that was released. In fact, I kind of became fearful during the end as he started leveraging TARP funds. Saying, if you cooperate, you'll get a piece of the pie. It smelled a lot like beginning stages of nationalization and a bit of Socialism. This makes me even more weary of me being in FAS right now, but I still think we're a ways out from that if it does indeed happen. Also, he plans to spend $2 billion on neighborhood campaigns to helping solve foreclosure problems. Are you serious? This kind of wasteful spending drives me crazy when I file my taxes.

GM's fate could become a mover for the market if the government does indeed not come to their rescue this time around. Nobody seems to be on the auto's side this time, but I still find it hard to believe that the government will turn the other cheek. A failure to come to their rescue now will blatantly show that our original bailout money was a complete waste of spending. If something does happen though, it could cause some serious movement. Check out Ford's Market Club report trending score, -90 ouch (get your own symbol analyzed for free, all you need is a name and email, Click Here)! So, I will not be playing any auto stocks.

Tomorrow acts as a critical day for market direction. I'll try to get on chat again throughout the day and chat with you all. I believe the market will be pretty decisive in the direction it plans to go. Stay tuned tomorrow too, I will be sharing some thoughts from a friend who has spent most of his life in the oil industry. With oil being on my radar, it was great to hear from him. Have a great night, Happy Trading and see you tomorrow.


  1. Anonymous Says:

    Foreclosure is the major cause of our financial crisis. Government should really prioritize this issue.We should really keep ourselves updated.Thanks for sharing your thoughts.Good Day!

  2. ___ Says:

    I disagree. The government attempting to create false bottom only prolongs the crisis.

    The word credit in latin means trust. The banks need to come clean about what they own and how much it is worth. Even the mighty Goldman and their massive Level 3 assets. The market will not trust the financial system as long as the government continues to cover up reality. After all, although a TARP covers things up, one can still see whatever garbage is beneath it!

    If the government continues to focus on social programs that turn $1 of tax payer money into less than $1 of real GDP out put, there will be no trust in the markets. Private capital does not trust the government and rightfully so. They make the rules and constantly change the rules of the game to promote their political agendas. The government should be forcing the banks to go open kimono so the financial system can function properly without government intervention. Only then will trust be restored.

    But why should the government do something so responsible? The balance of power has shifted from Wall Street to D.C. and once politicans take power, they don't like to give it back!

  3. Anonymous Says:

    I have uyg at 3.1. Do you suggest I hold on to it or sell it? Even if a rally comes do you think it will reach that level? I am kind of afraid since this etf keeps decaying. (I have some uyg at 7 which I havent sold till date :( ). I dont want to be caught up with a similar situation again. What do you suggest?


    New way of looking at things.