Showing posts with label market rally. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market rally. Show all posts

10,000 Dow... It Looks Like More Waiting For Me

intel earningsPerceived strong earnings from both Intel and JP Morgan today caused for markets to rally. The S&P has blown aggressively through that critical 1080 resistance and the Dow has penetrated that long awaited 10,000 mark. To many it looks as if Wall Street is back and our "crash" days are over. As I do acknowledge the impressive nature of this rebound and wish I could have taken more advantage of the rally, I still do feel we have several more beasts to slay for us to be considered "out of the woods." However, as of now, some key technical indicators have been broken, and if they are sustained, I will once again return to the sideline for a period. Until I see technicals and fundamentals align, I, personally, cannot declare an end to this recession. As always, these new levels need to sustain to become anything too significant, but for now there are no signs of slowing.

As such, I still see a lot of opportunity in shorting gold and longing the US dollar. Prices of consumer goods continues to decline. Despite what looks to be strong profits for the banks, where are all the loans? Loans are almost non-existent in the commercial sector and are becoming more difficult to obtain in the residential sector. For many banks, they now do not consider 1099 income (self employment) as normal income, thus making it very difficult to get a loan. Independent contractors around the country are finding a lot of difficulty, despite having money in the bank, to convince banks for a loan. In this type of environment, it makes business growth very difficult.

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Expect an Exhaust

market rallyWell, it seems that the buying has passed through the weekend and continued onto this week. Nothing too significant hit headlines today, as we are at our "non-eventful" economic data week. Leading indicators were slightly better than analysts expected, however, that benchmark is about as reliable as the Los Angeles Clippers.

What worries me and keeps me from joining bulls at this point is my strong worry of no sustainability of this rally. The graphical movements of the index would suggest there is no support or foundation. The recent building up is with very minimal volume and almost no dips. In most cases, such movements would strongly suggest the need of a rather aggressive dip, even if markets were to continue to go up. I expect that dip to hit either tomorrow or Wednesday. One thing that may push it t0 Wednesday is Apple's earnings which many are awaiting. With their new release of the Iphone 3GS, I expect Apple to have some pretty good earnings. Also, watch out for their usual "low ball", next quarter predictions, as that has become their trademark.

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