10,000 Dow... It Looks Like More Waiting For Me

intel earningsPerceived strong earnings from both Intel and JP Morgan today caused for markets to rally. The S&P has blown aggressively through that critical 1080 resistance and the Dow has penetrated that long awaited 10,000 mark. To many it looks as if Wall Street is back and our "crash" days are over. As I do acknowledge the impressive nature of this rebound and wish I could have taken more advantage of the rally, I still do feel we have several more beasts to slay for us to be considered "out of the woods." However, as of now, some key technical indicators have been broken, and if they are sustained, I will once again return to the sideline for a period. Until I see technicals and fundamentals align, I, personally, cannot declare an end to this recession. As always, these new levels need to sustain to become anything too significant, but for now there are no signs of slowing.

As such, I still see a lot of opportunity in shorting gold and longing the US dollar. Prices of consumer goods continues to decline. Despite what looks to be strong profits for the banks, where are all the loans? Loans are almost non-existent in the commercial sector and are becoming more difficult to obtain in the residential sector. For many banks, they now do not consider 1099 income (self employment) as normal income, thus making it very difficult to get a loan. Independent contractors around the country are finding a lot of difficulty, despite having money in the bank, to convince banks for a loan. In this type of environment, it makes business growth very difficult.

8 comments:

  1. McBalls Says:

    FF, what's your stop level for DRV. have you got out of the position yet?

  2. Anonymous Says:

    F.F.
    Since it was always better during the last 7 month to do the opposite of your recommendations you can guess my idea about Gold and the Dollar.
    Thanks for the tip!

  3. Rex Says:

    i made a lot of money by not following FF. Everytime he buys SRS i short it

  4. galkokolaf Says:

    no offense. you guys can make as much money as you want. this is a blog where FF is giving his own opinion on the ways he sees the market. The market has been more than irrational for the last several months based on government spendings and lower expectations. If you read more carefully JPM's earning report you will see that the financial institutions are making tremendous amount of money by trading stock. I just wonder how long would that continue. Maybe they will boost up the DOW to 20k may be 35k. who knows? well good luck to them pumping up another bobble to be burst later.
    Good luck everybody

  5. Anonymous Says:

    I have been saying dont believe what Ff said. me too I bought lot of FCX and DRN and made lot of profits.I would have made more but whenever I read this blog i backed out. I strongly determined not to read his blog. when I did not read his blog i made more. I know these are his personal openion but I got influenced by his views. Can you tell me what is the stop loss you had on DRV? how much you lost?

  6. Anonymous Says:

    In defense of FF. He has been wrong because he has used logic to base his opinions. Markets don't work on Logic. They work on Social Moods and Technicals) We were oversold in the spring and now we are way overbought and probably going higher in the short term. There will be a start of a severe corrective move to the downside in my opinion in the next 90 days, just when you new bulls have totally forgotten what volatility is all about. The reality is the future is not as bright as the market and when investors realize this the selloff will begin. A Sharp move in one direction will be met with an equaly sharp corrective move. GOOD Luck

  7. QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS Says:

    Outstanding company Intel.

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