Showing posts with label global recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global recession. Show all posts

Recession Is Officially Here - Today's Stock Performances Prove It

Just as a crack addict must eventually come to terms with reality and "sober up", so it is with the stock market on this "Cyber Monday", directly following the Thanksgiving weekend. I am sure what many thanks people had this weekend are all but gone when they saw the close of the market today. Well, maybe not everybody. In only one day, the market is more than half way back to our recent set bottom after enjoying a whole week of gains last week. This is what I have always been preaching, when economic news isn't on your side, it's a tough battle to win.

So it seems as if not all the bad news had been factored into the market, which is what some were starting to believe. Now, most everyone is in agreement that we still have a ways to go until we reach that bottom. Of course nobody knows, but lets hope next time people are slower to jumping on this bottom band wagon again.

So why today? Well, first off we had the profit takers. In a bear market, a week long rally is more than you can ask for and if you didn't take any profits on your longs, than shame on you. Second, they're officially proclaiming that we are now in a recession, which shouldn't be that earth shattering for most of us. They say that this recession started in Dec, 2007. Still, hearing it out of the horse's mouth always hurts a bit more. China continues to have problems as their PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) reached a record low, falling from 44.6 in October to 33.8 in November. These kind of reports are beginning to make analysts very skeptical of China's ability to maintain their 10% growth that they are constantly reinforcing. As time goes by, China is continuing to show more and more of its true colors.

As a result of today's antics, we saw huge gains from every short in the book. Financials took the lead with SKF being up almost 30% (FAZ up over 40%). SRS also finished strong as did FXP and EEV. This combined in giving me a very healthy day of gains across the board. Of course my unsold long options took a hammering, but those losses were easily outnumbered by my very large gains on the short side. It's days like today that I am very glad I sold some options last week!

Today's performance doesn't look like a 1 day fluke. This heartburn could continue throughout the week. Expect world markets to get slaughtered this evening and there is nothing but more bad news tomorrow. We could return back to that 7500 region very quickly.

More big news to consider is Governor Schwarzenegger declared California in a state of "fiscal emergency" and called a special budgeting meeting with lawmakers to discuss the next few months. Believe it or not, California risks bankruptcy and even hints of the thought will cause a very negative reaction to the market. If these troubles are taken further, watch out.

Auto sales are released tomorrow, just in time for the big GM meeting. These figures should be record breaking as no one seems to be buying cars. Also, keep your eye out for Friday, as they announce non farm payrolls. This announcement may be enough to put our recent "Rally Fridays" to an end.

In any case, as we have seen from today, clearly investors aren't ready to run yet. There is too many unknowns that remain to make people comfortable investing in today's market. We should see some strong gains from the inverse ETFs this week. The GM bailout may shake things up for a day or two, but that should be over and done with shortly. The market may still rally back in forth for a bit, with us being in this "bull season", but as I have been saying all along, I believe we still have a ways to go down before we go up again. Have a good evening everybody, Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.

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Dow Early Close Reaps More Gains


Despite it being Black Friday and the short trading day due to the holiday, we were still able to see some gains, closing at 8829. So as a whole, we ended the week pretty strongly, thanks to some pretty influencing announcements, the bullish season, and some global support. We could see this rally continue into next week, considering the momentum behind it, especially if we begin to see some resolve with the GM fiasco. With that, it could even be a strong rally, despite the state of our economy. Those like me in some long options, should see some big gains in them if we see this aggressive bear market rally aggressively push towards 9500.

However, a new month brings new economic data, which as recent months have shown us, can be very depressing. Also, we may find some pretty disappointing numbers from Black Friday, even with the enormous price slashes we have seen this year. In any case, I believe this rally will be short lived.

China experienced some hiccups today, dealing with their central bank. As a result, FXP and EEV ended up with the bunch, which hopefully they will make a trend of. I still make my case that it doesn't matter what announcement anybody makes, if the banks aren't lending money, our markets and economy are frozen. And there are no signs of any relief anytime soon.

This bear market rally offers a great opportunity to buy into some short positions if you haven't already. It is when people believe that the worst is over and we are hit with devastating news that causes true panic. Like a thief in the night. Some people feel that we have "factored" in the bad news to our current market, so that now there is nowhere to go but up. I couldn't disagree more. I believe a lot of people are naive to the problems going on across the world. It is easy to forget, especially during this time of holiday cheer. Things that happen in the corporate and business world, usually do not effect the consumer until 4-6 months later. The news out there should not frighten us, but instead prompt us to prepare ourselves. Not only by altering our stock positions, which I talk of mostly on this site, but also altering our lifestyles, to not fall victim to this crisis. One of my goals of this site is to incorporate all aspects of being financially prepared and balanced to hopefully help you as it has helped me to find gain and stability during a tough market. You will see more of these tips as time goes on.

I did begin a new position in SRS at $120. I did not buy in too much, as I feel we may still rally into December, giving me more opportunity to load up on SRS at lower prices. In my opinion, the retail disaster that will come in 2009 will be something we haven't seen in most people's lifetime. With the housing growth bubble, many national retailers leveraged themselves very highly to try and keep up, opening numerous locations in sub par markets. Heck, haven't you seen the Starbucks right across the street from each other? What were they thinking? In doing so, many retailer's cash liquidity has been reduced to almost nothing. Having no cash in this market is a straight road to bankruptcy. As a result, SRS should continue to grow back to high numbers in my opinion. I think these effects will have strong influences on EEV and FXP as well.

Another thing to consider when dealing with EEV and FXP is the goal the US will have for the next few years to stimulate job growth. Expect Obama to give many to incentives to businesses and manufacturers for keeping their production and laborers with the US, in attempt to lower our net imports from other nations and stimulate job growth within the US. Other nations should follow suit, especially big players like Germany, Great Britain, and Russia. For nations like India and China, this could cause big problems. Much of their business comes from their exports to other nations. Due to the size of their population, this has been essential for them to continue to grow and expand. I can't see them recovering very quickly with having been involved in so many other economies. This is why I choose to short emerging markets and China. While their growth was 2 times the normal during good times, I believe it will be the same for th bad times. These are just my thoughts on the issue. Take it as you will.

In any case, we ended the week up, which we haven't seen us do in a while. Like I've said before, this may continue into next week and even into most of December, as holiday shopping usually brings out the bulls. However, try to remind yourself of our economic conditions and the things we discuss on this site when thinking of what to buy. This market is still vulnerable to quick movement swings, so try not to get greedy. For me, I finally just have to force myself to sell and take profits even though my conscience may prod me to leave it in longer. Many times I am grateful I did so. I hope everyone has had a good Thanksgiving weekend and we will see what the new month will bring us on Monday. Thank you for the donations, it is much appreciated and thanks to those that participate in the site. I always enjoy others insights and comments. Happy Trading.

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Planning For The Future - What To Buy For My IRA?

For this Thanksgiving day, I thought I would take a break from the woes of our current market and discuss some ideas that we can take advantage of in this market for our future well being. One of the biggest issues on The President's agenda is how to deal with the retirement of the baby boomer generation. I have had many analysts say to me, "Don't expect social security to be there for you when you get old." This can be scary if you're banking on it, but if you plan the right way, you don't have to worry about it. So today I just wanted to talk about setting up an IRA account and, in my eyes, some great buys on discount in this market to consider for your IRA. By the way, if you have not set up an IRA account and are interested, TradeKing is having a promotion where they will give you $50 credit for signing up before December. Pretty good deal and that can be your first deposit! To find out more, go to www.TradeKing.com.

IRA, or Individual Retirement Account is an account that has been set up to allow people to begin their retirement savings at a young age. One thing you will find, is that if you are on the right side of Time Value of Money, it can work to your favor! To help promote these accounts, the Government has set up some incentives for people using them.

There are two main types of IRA accounts, Roth and Traditional. Traditional IRA accounts are accounts that you contribute to, to where you can deduct your contributions on your tax statement. Your gains from this account are tax deferred to when you withdraw from the account. Roth IRA accounts are non-deductible but also are exempt from tax gains. It is up to you to decide which account works for you and which one you are more comfortable with.

There is a maximum amount which you can contribute to this account on an annual basis. Recently the max was bumped up to $5000 from $4000 in 2007. It is usually good to be able to max this out annually if you can to take advantage of the tax protection, at least I do anyway. The point is to leave the money in the account, until the appropriated age of 591/2 to avoid the bad 10% penalty of early withdrawal. However, there are certain things that have been approved for early withdrawal, such as house purchases and education funds. Check with your accountant for more information about that.

So what should go in this account? Many people have a variety of investments in their own account, depending on risk strategy. Here are stocks I have purchased for my own account that I have found to be great buys for the long haul. Please understand, I still believe there will still be more loss in the short term, but for my IRA, I think these stocks have reached low enough.

VZ
Verizon has shown it's ability to hold strong in this tough market. I also find it to be pretty recession proof. Cell phones have almost become a priority in the US household and Verizon's coverage area gives them competitive edge against competitors. To top it off, they have a 6% annual dividend, which is what puts this stock over the edge for me.

GE
Even though General Electric has taken a beating in the recent months with everything else, I still find it at a steal for the long haul. People have their doubts of GE's ability to compete in this modern market, but come one. It's GE, the All American company. Plus, you have backing from Mr. Buffett himself. At $16, with a very strong 7.9% dividend, I don't see how you can go wrong with this one.

COP
Conoco Phillips - I believe oil is the air of the future. The more tech savvy other nations get, the more consumption will occur. Even though we saw the bubble pop recently, I think Oil belongs close to $90-$100 a barrel in the long run. I also think Conoco has good leadership and is ahead of the game with competitors. At $54 with a 3.7% dividend, this one is in my IRA.

STP
Suntech Power - This stock has taken a beating recently with the demise of oil prices. As oil prices go down, people feel that there is no need for alternative energy, including solar. However, this is not on Obama's agenda. He has already approved an alternative energy bill for when he is in office, that gives a lot love to solar. In fact, STP already took a big bounce this last week from the announcement. As soon as oil is back up, solar will be leading resource for alternative energy, and Suntech is a big player in that market. It may struggle here in the short term, but this stock is at least a $40-$50 stock in a stable market. Its 52 week high is $90. So you see just how high it can climb. Plus it diversifies my portfolio.

AAPL
My tech pick, Apple. I think they are the new standard for computers, handheld media and phones. Sure Microsoft owns the PC market and software, but Apple is so well diversified they make me very comfortable, even in a shaky market like we're in currently. With there creative innovation, I believe they will continue to lead us into new avenues of technology. I believe they will once again return to a $200 stock price in the future. Plus they have 24 billion dollars in sitting in cash. That always helps!

So these are my main picks, for the current bottom. I try to stay diversified and stick with companies with low debt, high market caps, and a strong player in their market. Remember, IRA's are untouchable for a while, so it shouldn't worry you as much what will happen in the next 1-2 years as much as where it will be in 30 years. I hope this gives you some good insights in planning your retirement strategy. In any case, everyone should strive to plan their own retirement and start now! The earlier you start, the more you will have to retire with! Have a great Thanksgiving everyone, we'll see you tomorrow!

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Five Reasons I am Thankful To Be Short In This Market

Kermit The Frog said it best when he said, "it's not easy being green." Christmas came early today for the bulls, as we saw government intervention all across the world. It must be everyone's holiday cheer. Even with some of the worst economic data we have received all year, we were still able to close at 8726. We expected this rally, however, I personally felt that it would come more aggressively in a smaller time frame, than spread out into more days. This was the exact reason why I held on to most of my long options, and good thing. The November and December months have a history of ignoring outside data and bulling forward. The big question is, will it last? My thoughts, even after today, are NOT A CHANCE!



By now, many of you may think I am just a pessimist, and I'm not, I swear. I have made just as much money on the long side than I have short. There are just too many reasons that exist to make me feel comfortable with going long again. Sure, we had some great rallies this week, and you know what, I think it will continue for a bit. But there is too much hype derived by speculative announcements and mythical figures to be anything solid.

China made a HUGE rate cut, which of course is going to send them flying a day or two. Europe also joined in the cheer by adding more money to the bailout pile. These two announcements of course killed FXP and EEV for today. Which with those two, I just have to sit back and wait. It could be December; it could be January. But I'm still backing them 100%. Cheers to the people that are just starting to buy these at their low rates!

Many agree this rally may continue for another 1000 points or so, so those of you skeptical about shorting, you may want to wait another week. However, if you miss the boat, don't blame it on me. However, most also agree that we have not hit bottom and that the rally will end with an even worse sell off. So I will just utilize this time to make even more money on my long options until we see it come down again. In the midst of all this green, I'd like to give my five reasons I am thankful I'm short on this Thanksgiving week.

1) This Is A Global Recession
These days we're in aren't like the recessions of the 70's-90's, where we are feeling an isolated recession, and we can look to other flourishing countries to help bail us out. It's everyone for themselves right now. With our economy now being a global economy, this does not give us many to people to go to for temporary relief. All nations are feeling pain right now. Although, most people may seem optimistic of China, China is struggling. Several Chinese toy companies, which is a prominent trade for China, have either shut down or have laid off several employees. Yesterday, there was a huge riot of employees claiming they had been wronged. Get use to seeing that.

2) The Warren Buffett Farm Analogy
A couple months ago, the all wise Warren Buffett gave a great analogy to what is going on with our nation's economic position. He said, "We're like a very rich family; we own a farm the size of Texas but want to consume more" than the farm generates, he said. "Every day, we sell off or mortgage a piece of the farm."

If the policy continues, over time, the rest of the world "will own more of our farm" and future generations will resent that they spend part of their workweek paying off those costs of consumption, he said. We have been mortgaging off our "farm" for years now and our national debt proves it. There is no way the government can conjure up all the money needed to free Americans from our debt dilemma. Pretty soon, us as Americans are going to be feeling this first hand.

3) Housing Market Leads The Way
Today's housing announcement should have shown everyone just how bad of a position we are still in and should be in for quite some time. The point is, even if it turned into a buyers market tomorrow, it would take us 6 years just to buy all the inventory that is currently on the market, without bringing in new inventory. Housing prices have a direct correlation with consumer sentiment. No one likes to know the value of their house (usually people's main source of equity) has been cut in half. Everyone now feels they are invincible to foreclosure and bills, thanks to Uncle Sam. This is not the case. A majority of people will not be bailed out of their mortgages and credit card bills. Once this sets in and creditors come knocking, this sediment will charge downward. The housing market led us into this crisis and I believe it will lead us out.

4) Many Hedge Funds Not In The Market
There is a lot of money still sitting on the sidelines. In fact, most hedge funds still are sitting on the sidelines. Despite the rally today, the volume was very low. This is not the sign of a turnaround. A lot of the market is being dictated by uneducated yahoos, feeding off emotion. It is no wonder there is no correlation in the market right now. So why are hedge funds sitting on the sidelines or staying very conservative? I think because they know we've still got a ways to go.

5) No Banks and No Money
Last, but probably most important, No money! Nobody can get money right now. Most American business buy their inventory on margin (or on loan). With the big drop in sales, many retailers cannot make their margins to buy new inventory. This is what exactly happened to Mervyn's. This is also the problem with small business owners, real estate owners, joint venture funds, commercial REITS, Insurance and pension funds and others. When the financial markets went away, these all went away. If you talk to any banks, especially in their underwriting department, you will find that they don't plan on giving out many loans for a while now. This lack of liquidity will continue to hammer down on our economy.

These are the main reason I cannot jump on the green band wagon. Even though I am hurting in my shorts, I will just wait. I am making great money in my long positions and will look to liquidate those, probably next week. I was able to begin my SRS purchasing today. I will continue to buy SRS if it continues to go down. Q1 2009 should be a horrible quarter for retail sales and real estate owners. If you want to be long, for comfort, I like VMW, VZ, DIG, and GDX (these are most that I am in). We will continue to get more "Obama promises", but as conditions continue to get worse in the US, and these problems begin to hit people's homes, we as a county will become a lot more skeptical. I hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving and has something to be thankful for. Have a good rest of the week and Happy Trading.

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Volatility Returns To Wall Street - Capitulation Could Be Near

Just when everyone thought the market was finding its footing and becoming more stable, once again we see aggressive volatility back in the market. The lead up is much similar to the one we saw leading up to our lowest point back in mid October. This causes me to speculate a little and discuss some interesting concepts.

As we know, there is a lot of technical analysis that goes into analyzing market trends and movements and determining bottoms and capitulation. The vertical rebound we experienced Thursday, and the volatility of Friday has set up the perfect scenario for what many believe are the gates to capitulation. So I thought I would share what I have learned.

The "G20", consisting of major global emerging markets leaders, are meeting this weekend to discuss the global crisis and maybe some possible resolutions to slow the bleeding. Some expect a small band aide announcement will be made, causing a strong emotional rally on Monday. From there, many technical analysts feel that this is where we will see the bottom fall out. Some expect it to drop like a tank. By analyzing graphical trends, some believe we could reach anywhere from 6500-7500 by the end of next week and experience our first capitulation of this recession/depression. Bear in mind these are technical analytics that may not apply to this crazy market we're currently in, but it's good food for thought.

So what did I do with this news? Obviously, I am keeping my shorts. Thankfully, we saw FXP gain back a lot of ground it loss from Thursday. As expected, we saw a massive sell off the last 5 minutes before the market closed (probably from the mass hedge fund liquidations). All the other usual suspects for inverse ETFs did great as well. One new one I am adding to my list that I have been eyeing (probably picking some up on Monday) is EEV. EEV is an inverse ETF shorting the emerging markets sector. Now, with the "G20", involving many of these emerging market leaders, we should be seeing some good gains out of this as we continue to see these quick fixes fail. We see similar trends with this ETF as we do with FXP, but it seems to be holding up slightly stronger.

Considering that I feel we could be in for a short term rally on Monday, I picked up some DIG options on Friday, expiring in December as well as some more of my .QAADB April expiring Apple options. With this volatility coming back, I'm looking to play both sides a little bit more. I am not 100% sold of this technical prediction, but I feel good about picking up these options at these prices anyway. If we do indeed get this rally on Monday, I will look to liquidate all of my long positions, with the exception of maybe my GDX options and throw my profits into EEV and some SKF or SRS. I believe next week will be a pretty monumental week. I think we will see A LOT of activity go on. So stay on your toes and try and catch the openings and closings of the market. That is usually when the deals are. Thanks to those that commented, I enjoy your insights. I hope everyone has a good weekend and Happy Trading. We will see you Monday.

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Obama Wins - Wall Street Loses


As we progress further into "Rave Week", we continue to find surprises. Although, we did anticipate a rally this week, with the fact that historically stocks have rallied following elections. One thing is for sure, Wall Street does not like uncertainty, which is why in most cases there is a slowing prior before elections. However, with certainty comes a rally. In this case, with the polls strongly favoring Obama to win today, it seems as though Wall Street has already made up its mind, finishing the day over 9600. It seems as if they feel the uncertainty is over. Remember, I cautioned for the possibility of a rally towards 10000, since the 9200 threshold was reached. But tomorrow will be tricky. As when news is expected to be announced, like the Fed Rate cut, or high earnings, there is usually a bigger run before hand factoring in the expectations. I believe we have experienced that "anticipation" of the election today. However, when the excitement settles and America "sobers" up, we will still be in the same financial crisis we started months ago, and this time Head Deep. Look for a new bottom to be established in December or January.

Tomorrow, I believe we have a good chance to keep this rally going. Foreign markets should respond well this evening to the election and strong performance in Wall street, which should carry over into tomorrow. However, I think this rally could be put to a sharp halt on Thursday and/or Friday. Like I said yesterday, employment news is announced on Friday, and that can't be good.

The only thing keeping the market above 9000 the next couple of weeks will be the short squeeze we are experiencing, because of Redemptions due in Mid November. Until then, we may see this awkward stimulated market, with the help of some market manipulation. Just remember, we aren't even labeled a "recession" yet. We have a ways to go.

So what to do. As expected, we saw big moves in GDX and AIG. I think I will look to sell AIG as it approaches $3. GDX looks like a good sell for me at $25. Both have been great this past week and still should move. GDX has moved 30% in the past few days where AIG has almost doubled.

LOAD UP ON FXP, Wow! I was extactic to see it go below $80 today. I picked up another good load of shares today at $74. People, I know it's hard to see the sharp decline in buy into it, but this is a steal. The harsh times that lie ahead for the end of the year will directly show in the value of FXP. I believe we will hit the $200 price by January.

For Tomorrow, expect another rally, maybe not as strong as today. This may be the last day to get FXP at this strong, discounted price. If you still are in GDX or AIG, you may want to consider selling of some if not all your shares tomorrow, before the market gets struck. SKF and SRS are getting very close to purchasing price, I'm just waiting a bit longer (although that is a gamble, because this could be the lowest it goes). Be patient, like I said in prior posts, in this round of FXP, we aren't going to see a double in a week like we did last time. We may have to wait a month or two this time. So be patient, Happy Trading and we'll look to see what this market does tomorrow. Oh and if McCain somehow wins tomorrow, who knows what the market will do, all bets are off. See you Tomorrow.

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Rave Week - Dow On Hold While We Go and Vote

As anticipated, this week (at least the beginning of it) does not look to be a good week to anticipate market movement. Today, we saw the Dow Jones trade at low 179.25 M volume, the average being 335.66 M. Clearly, we see that Wall Street has taken the back seat to the upcoming election which takes place tomorrow. It was a pretty slow day all around for the market and not much movement was found in most sectors. Circuit City announced today that they will be closing 155 stores and cutting around 7,300 jobs, as we expected. This is just a tease until the big closure comes after the holidays.

On the bright side, China had a relatively strong opening of the week, bringing FXP down to $85 during points of the day. I was able to bulk up my position more at this discounted price. If I can continue to pick up shares at this discount, I am all about, because a storm is coming, and it's just a matter of time. It will be interesting to see how Asian markets respond this evening to the relatively weak opening of Wall Street today. I believe many countries predicted a nice rally this week.

Like I said last week, I am not planning on being too active this week. With the volume so low, it makes it a real volatile market vulnerable to several conditions. A couple positions that have been catching my eye are GOLD (GDX) and AIG. Everyone keeps saying we are in a "deflationary" market, hence the continual rate cut. Many predict us to eventually have The Fed rate at 0. At this point, inflation is inevitable. It doesn't matter how quick The Fed responds, we will experience inflation. At that point, gold becomes a commodity of high demand. I think GDX is a Strong Buy under $20. You can't go wrong.

Also, AIG is picked up strength the past few days. With the FDIC controlling it currently, I think its a pretty solid buy in the short term. Mind you, there will continue to be negative news with credit markets for the next year, so I look at it for the very short term.

As for now, I am mostly playing FXP. If SRS and SKF can get below $100, I feel very confident about getting back in those as well. This Friday, November 7, Employment Report comes out and you can count on this number being disappointing. I would not be surprised to see the Unemployment rate over 7% and the new jobs down huge from the previous quarter. This is bound to take a negative punch on the market. However, we still could be feeling the short squeeze up until Nov 14th, so be aware we may not see too much movement until Mid November. But be advised, this credit crisis is not going anywhere for a while. Get out and vote tomorrow and keep tabs on FXP. I'm guessing we should get a little bounce from it tomorrow. Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.

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BUY BUY BUY - The Stock Market is Creating Better Illusions Than Houdini

Quickly, go all in. We have reached the bottom. Not so fast. In our current market, emotions are playing as a higher factor than fundamentals. But like a heroin high, it's only going to last a bit and then cruel reality will once again set in.. Yesterday, I discussed the probability of a green day, especially in Asian stocks dealing with the possibility of a rate cut in Japan. That possibility is still lingering.

Today, we officially found out we had a contracting economy(one more quarter of those and we've officially got ourselves a recession) with the GDP report, but the "bad news" was better than expected.
With that, surprisingly, came a pretty well stimulated day. Good enough that I unloaded the rest of my Apple $110 strike price contracts for double what I bought into them for. And with those proceeds I'm back in heavy to FXP at $90. Ahhh, I feel so much better now. It's like coming in from a rain storm. Getting back on the short side is so much more comfortable in this market than playing the long. Let's take a look at where we're at:










See the trend? It looks like a long hike up, but it goes by faster than you think. Let me be frank. We may see FXP cut in price even further before it explodes. This is because next week looks to be what I call a "Rave Week." A Rave Week is when there is so many things going on you don't know whats going to happen. Lets not forget the short squeeze we are feeling for the redemptions coming in Mid November. Also, elections are next week, and with Obama leading, who knows what kind of response that will cause. And of course, everyday new bad news will loom over the market trying to bring it down. We may be told next week that all are banks go under and we will still see green. We may have the best news ever, only to find red in the market. Whatever the case, there will be a lot of noise during next weeks trading. Tomorrow will be a telling day.

So why buy FXP now? Because in December, watch out! I would love to see the market rally all next week. That way, SRS, SKF, and SDS will all be prime for buying, because I believe our big, bad tidal wave is coming in December and January. The holiday season the last hurrah for a lot of retailers. When they see the horrible sales volume the holidays bring, out go the lights. We are going to see a lot of big, national retailers go under next year (my picks: Circuit City, Office Max, Office Depot just to name a few). The ones that remain will be hurting, bad. So, if I continue to see FXP drop, I will continue to buy in $10 increments. I bought today at $90, if we see it reach $80, I buy more, $70 again, etc... Remember I have a nice pile of cash of GAINS sitting on the sidelines from the past two weeks. We've got room to wiggle.

I don't feel comfortable with any longs at this point. I almost do about GDX (Gold ETF), but I like their options, when their price is below $20. With all the Federal help in the credit markets, we are bound for inflation. SRS and SKF have come down significantly, but not near as much for a buy for me. Remember if you choose to buy FXP now, realize we may not see big gains for another couple of weeks. Don't worry, the gains will come, but maybe not until late November. You may see it go down another 20% before going up again. Like I said before, this ETF is not for the faint of heart. Be patient. I hope you all are riding these waves with me. It's been a great ride so far. Just don't hate me if I'm not 100% right. I will try to be 80%. You never always know what this market will do.

I will give another special update this evening to discuss how the Asian markets are doing. Usually, we get a pretty good idea of how FXP will perform from looking at how the Asian market does. This Rally should not last long. Upcoming news will prove that. Just wait until the next job report comes out. Check back tonight for the Special evening update. Happy trading.

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The Dow up over 10% - Did You Get On The Wave?

Like I said patience is a virtue. You should have not been too surprised, because we here at Crash Market Stock said it was coming. In any regard, I hope that you are finding ways to make money in this market, because the opportunities are ALL AROUND YOU!

So here we are, a huge rally, up over 10% for the Dow today. All of the options we discussed are up anywhere from 30-90% depending on which ones you bought. And after completely liquidating my FXP, there was not any downside today. So what now...

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day and I'm going to be very cautious to what I advise. There are many elements constantly pounding on the market everyday telling us Bad News. I mean, even today we got the worst consumer sediment report in 30 years. You would think that would devastate a market. However, this time, I believe there was more positive pounding, temporarily, to give us this huge run. But there is a lot less positive to work with than negative, which is why we need to be careful when playing the long. In fact, GDP reports come out Thursday, which I am sure will now show a recession.

As for tomorrow, we have the big announcement. Now, no doubt most of the reaction of the cut was factored today, but not all. This puts us in a sticky situation. Most are expecting around a 50 basis point cut in the rate. Anything less than that, will probably send this market down tanking (coupled with the people taking profits from today). If they cut to expectations or more, I believe we'll see another healthy rally tomorrow. Remember, there are billions of dollars out there sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "bottom", and as soon as they see signs of life, they dump it in.

As For me, I plan on keeping my option contracts and hopefully selling them tomorrow for a healthy gain. Then, depending on how the market moves, I would love to get back into a short position. Notice below the chart for FXP. See the trends?
As you can see, there is a pretty correlating trend with spikes in this ETF. Good fluctuation from $80-90 up to $190. For me, as soon as it gets below $100, its a buy, and look what we found last week. The great news is after today, it took such a beating, its back down to $113. Another day of that and I am back in. For your options, look to hold on tomorrow and think about liquidating at the peak of the day tomorrow. Remember, it may be better to sell it before the Fed's announcement, because as we saw from the Bailout vote, action can cause the market to move down. If we see FXP hit $92 or below, I would get back in. There is too much bad news to come to keep that stock below $150. Good luck, Happy Trading, and we will see you tomorrow.

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The Dow is still going Down, Down and Down. More Opportunity For You!

Well, we have seen yet another Red day in the Stock Market and while most people are outside banging their heads on the wall, I am excited for the new opportunities that are presented to make some money in the market. It is for this reason why I recommended the initial load up of FXP. Today, we did see a decline of the Apple (AAPL) options, however, FXP hit $160, still giving us strong gains for the day. It is essential in this market (at least at this point), that whenever you are long, also hedge it with a short position, because for the next year I see this market struggling.

Because of continual days of red in the market, I think we are due for a rally. I did say yesterday that I thought that rally would have been today, but that's ok. KEY DATE: The Fed meets October 30 to discuss the economy. You can bet that if the market is still trending downward, we may see a historical 1 point cut to the fed funds rate. If so, watch out! We will probably see a 1000 + day movement on the DOW. So I foresee some expectation of the cut beforehand.

I think some opportunities to look at are Gold. Commodities have been slammed this month and gold is at a 52 week low. With the FED cutting the rate, some will fear inflation, boosting up Gold. On Monday, look to see the trend of the market. If it looks to be up in the pre-market, considering selling a big portion of your short position and maybe load up on some January expiring, either GLD or GDX options. This should give you plenty of time for a nice good pop in gold. If it looks to be down on Monday, let FXP make you some more thousands and towards the end of the day, maybe look into loading up on the Gold options. I think next week is a Green Week. See you Monday.

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Return Update - Did you make money this week?

It has been 2 days since my advice of positions to take and although it may seem like it's too soon to discuss big returns, this is the market we are in today.
On Monday, I said to look at getting into FXP (an ETF that shorts the China market) at $90. With the help of one of the largest China banks getting hammered for credit failure warning, after two days FXP has shot up to $124.16, currently. This giving us a return of about 36%! Only in 2 days.

Now on top of that, I also advised to buy into an Apple call option prior to earnings report. I bought several April expiring contracts at a strike price of $110 yesterday for $9.10. Today, en light of the solid earnings, they got as high as $14.50 (.QAADB), this being with the NASDAQ being down 3.24%. I am holding on to them, because I think Tech will rally in either Thursday or Friday. And with a rally, I believe we should see Apple (AAPL) anywhere between $110-$120. So if you did sell out at $14.50, you would have earned a return of 59%.

The bonus with these two positions, is you had hedge to your risk. You had a short position in the market as well as a long position and best case scenario worked out where both were profitable.
So if you would have invested $10,000 ($5,000 in each investment), your current investment would be worth $14,750! Of course both circumstances acted profitable, which may not always happen, but for me, it does, frequently. So what next???

We have experienced two down days in a row in the market. Mostly due to bad earnings and fears of a global recession. Commodities have been crushed the past week and oil has reached its lowest point since June of 2007. I think this brings an excellent opportunity for us to make some money.

Currently, DIG (an oil long ultrashare) is trading at $27.86 (down 19.6%). OPEC, the governing body for oil distribution, meets on Friday to discuss production supply. Many people are predicting a supply cut, which in turn, should lower demand pushing the price up. I think if OPEC cuts supply by 10%, we should see a 10% bump on Friday. Currently, .DPBLN, an option for DIG at $40 expiring in Dec is trading for $2.80. I am going to try and snatch this up in the $2.20 -2,50 range. If we see this supply cut and a healthy pop in stock price, we should see this option go to the $5 plus range (if all works to plan of course). So keep your eye out and you may want to pull the trigger.

Please keep in mind though that options are much more volatile than stocks and should not be played unless you have experience in option trading. Happy Trading and we will discuss tomorrow.

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