New Trading Activity

wall street sellingAs I said in the previous post, I think we will be experiencing some significant trading days in the coming weeks, if not days. I know I have been rather "stubborn" (as some would say) in believing that the worst was not over for the market and have consistently expressed my opinion of a second leg downward. Well, unforeseen intervention and ridiculous amounts of government spending and policy changed mixed things up quite a bit and have helped put us in this current, crazy state. Despite recent gains, I do feel that recent data has indeed been significant enough to support the notion of a severe short term risk of deflation, that would indeed send us spiraling down.

The PPI numbers on Tuesday are just part of what makes up my belief. As such, I believe there are going to be some great opportunities for me to make some money in my account. The inverse etfs, which have been dogs as of late, could definitely be ready for a second wind. Also, other industries I see weakness will be credit card companies as well as health insurance companies. Obama is on a mission for health care and I believe he has some serious regulation in mind for insurance companies that will dig into their profit margins. Credit Card companies should get hit by a more "saving minded" consumer as well as the risk for more regulation heading their way as well.

Long term, airlines and autos look like decent plays as I believe there should be a short term cut to gasoline prices, as well as the continued "success" of cash for clunkers. However, all industries are in risk of a deflationary down spiral, so if such things were to occur, longs would be a tough call (aside for the US Dollar).

All my beliefs are obviously based on natural workings of the market and could once again be stalled by yet another government explosion of stimulus. I do, however, believe that the government is getting close to the edge of what they can do monetarily, as they are maxing out their sale of treasuries. The next few weeks should start to become very interesting, in my opinion, and hopefully, we start to see some direction. Happy Trading.


  1. Anonymous Says:

    you have been pessimistic for so many days and you are not realizing.Do you think economy has not improved a bit from an year ago. I never heard from you that economy is improved a little bit.I am waiting for that line in your have to say positive points also you are only mentioning only negative ones.whenever I read your post I became pessimistic.
    Any way thanks for your posts.

  2. Finance Fanatic Says:

    Fundamentally, I do not believe many positive things have come from the past three months. Sure, we have seen a reduction in job losses, home sales have bobbled around, some banks are claiming profits, but my end goal is to come out of this recession not just fabricate it. Unfortunately, for us to completely exit this recession, we need the consumer. The last few months have been from government spending and manipulated accounting. The consumer has been saving more and earning less. If that continues, we are not going up.

  3. Anonymous Says:

    FF, you may want to read Dennis Gartman's No. 2 trading rule: "Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically."

  4. Anonymous Says:

    Ok. I am going to call it for ya... The next leg of this crash down begins next week.

    Asia will start it off on Sunday night.

    I mean come on... 2 more TRILLION in debt? News at exactly 4pm on Friday and this media hyped up housing sales number. It was not actually good at all. Commercial Real Estate down in the dumps, Foreclosures rampant, Unemployment ticking higher, Lack of Credit, Credit Cards, Bankruptcies, Baltic Dry Index.... I can go on and on...

    What recovery are they talking about? The stock market maybe... that's about it. But that's about it. FF has been wrong about the market but not the economy.

    He is now about to be right about the market once again.


    Oh, and by the way, Cash for Clunkers is over on Monday. That will add fuel to the fire, since dealers have not been paid by the government. That means Auto won't go up like you predicted.

    Second, Oil might decline with the market, but.... still won't be good for Airline stocks. I wouldn't put it past the traders to reverse the trend with the market and get Oil back up to 100+.

    So there you have it.

  5. Anonymous Says:

    No doubt FF has been wrong on the market. As anyone shorting including myself have gotten crushed..You have to have more long positions than short and ride the tape.No fighting this tape as of now..We are still within Wave 4 parameters but it is feeling more and more like Wave 1 new bullmarket. I agree with FF on the fundamentals of the economy but the market is on a massive sugar high and still forcing others to come in..We need a new catalyst to scare people into reality.. Traders are not scared except for the ones who have missed the rally. I am afraid all of the inverse leveraged etf's are going to be single digits before the next down leg begins..

  6. Anonymous Says:

    Please get rid of the LVS Short "Chart of the Week." It's so annoying.... being that it is so old and so wrong....

    Post some new trading ideas for once rather than being "on the sidelines!"


    Shady traders

  8. Chanel Replica Says:

    I’ve heard so many not-so-great stories on PurseForum and via email when it comes to luxury customer service, from brands charging people exorbitant amounts to fix their bags to having to send out items for months at a time for small repairs