Rally Comes Early For Hedge Funds Despite Bad News Across The Board

This is why I prefaced this week with "Rave Week." News today consisted of:

  • Slightly higher than expected job loss reports
  • GM and Ford earnings horrible
  • Retail sales lowest in 35 years
  • Dollar weakening in strength
  • Oil went up
And...We close up 248 points; got to love market movers. Today was an early witness of the short squeeze being caused for the upcoming redemptions next Friday for hedge funds. Like I said yesterday, expect this rally to trinkle into next week, however, I do not know how much higher we can go even with market manipulation. The point is, we will continue to see the market not making much sense until next Friday. Sure, most of my gain from the past two days of FXP have was wiped out today, but like I said, I am not expecting this round to last a week. Although, I would have like to see it hit $120 today, there is still no stopping this ETF from hitting the $150 range by January (maybe even multiple times).

So what do I do? I load up more. I am going to wait and see how we react Monday, but if we see FXP go lower, I would love top pick up some more shares. Also, my .QAADB Apple option is getting pretty close to buy price again. I usually wait for that to get down to $10, where then I load up and sell at $20.

We could very well see this market shoot up close to 10000 next week. This does not mean FXP will go to $40. FXP was especially rocked today, because of the strong performance of the China Market last night. SKF and SRS were not hurt nearly as much by the gains today. I don't see FXP going much lower than the high 60's (if that) and if I can get my hands on some shares at that price, I will be quite pleased.

For those that just got into FXP, be patient. It pays off. Today may have caused some to make a mess in their pants, but don't panic. Just as hard as it gets hit it goes up. We are still experiencing some market uncertainty with the elections and these redemptions. Like I've said before, give it a month or two on this go around. We were fortunate enough last time to have 100% gains in a week, but that was a gift. Financials got hit pretty hard today and with talks of a second bailout being discussed, UYG is a good stock to look at for next week. I still like GDX, even though it was down today. STP was up over 20% today. Solar should remain very volatile until Obama is in office. This stock is still very undervalued.

So not the kind of day I was hoping to end on for the week, but what could I expect from Rave Week? Next week should be interesting and I would love to see the S&P get a strong bump so I could load up on SDS. If we can see these shorts get slammed next week, that will tee us up perfectly for loading up for the end of year. There is no stopping the storm ahead. Have a great weekend and I will see you on Monday. Depending on the weekend, I may give a Sunday evening update. Happy Trading.

4 comments:

  1. Ştefan Says:

    You don't get many comments, which is a şhame, please keep posting.

    I reasoned along the same lines as you, and grabbed some profits with similar strategies for the last few weeks. I only made around 8%, but hey -- it's positive, so I'm happy.

    Anyway, I entered FXP and SDS last week @ around $90, before I found your blog which boosted my
    confidence in the timing. But I got greedy yesterday and didn't sell, although I heard the high-pitched voice in my head telling me to cash at +11%. I got out today to breakeven, I just couldn't take the FXP 18% down in one day. Lucky to get out -- it finished 25% down.

    I will continue to monitor the RSI of these for the coming weeks, but FXP seems just too wild, SDS makes more sense. Another thing: FXP doesn't seem to have a good sync with FXI: when the latter returned to a value after one week, the former was well below. All in all, to keep FXP for more than a week or two takes a lot of balls, or a lot of confidence in your medium term predictions (or play small sums).

    Keep posting, and godspeed!

  2. Financial Fanatic Says:

    I agree, out of all the ETF's, FXP is the most volatile. Lately I have strayed from using RSI models to evaluate (especially these ETFs), because RSI is based on averaging trends, where we have just entered a unique part of this crisis. FXP has just recently become appealing to me, because of soon to come events.

    Where going to get bumps on all of these ETF's as the Dow goes down further and my feeling is by January, when we get the earnings result from the lack of spending this holiday season,and get the whole new group of retaielers going BK, we're going to establish a new bottom. Thanks for the comment and keep them coming, everyone. I enjoy hearing from the group.

  3. monsieurstat Says:

    That's my story too with FXP... I got some Jan Call options on Wednesday for $18. It soared to $30 by 3pm on Thursday. I should have sold, but it did not make sense to me (despite the voice in my head!!!) given I had bought them to keep for a few weeks. Today, it went all the way back to 18.30, and I am expecting to see $14 or even $12 next week, so I might dump them and buy back again at a lower price. But I am very sure that FXP will be back to $120-$140 before end of November.

    BTW, thanks for this blog. I am a regular reader now. You got great ideas, and have a good perspective on the market. Keep them coming!!

  4. QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS Says:

    Excellent news