Tomorrow's Employment Number Big Factor

unemployment ratesNerves are beginning to rise as the largely anticipated employment prepares to hit headlines tomorrow. Many economists are expecting a increase in the unemployment rate, which would be a tough blow after the strong numbers that came in May. For many analysts, a bad enough number tomorrow will be enough to convince them that indeed a "double dip" recession is at hand. Manufacturing and home sales already support the notion. The only thing missing is employment.

If the number does pan out to be negative, expect a violent reaction from investors, especially going into the weekend. Regardless, even if we do open up strong in the green from a positive report, I still expect the market to trail down by close, especially the last 20 minutes, so be on the lookout.

One element that has me divided about the number tomorrow is what we saw today. Many are privy to early viewing of this employment number, which is why we see negative results many time factored in the day before. Today's just slight down day is slightly leading me to believe that the number may not be as bad as many are fearing. So tomorrow will definitely be exciting regardless.

Despite having mortgage rates at record lows, home sales are struggling. With this being the case, we have to remember that we are in the peak season as well for home sales. I can't help but think that when the fall and winter months come, we shall see one big tidal waves of foreclosures come, which will directly effect prices. As of now, the bear in me is definitely making much more noise than the bull. Happy Trading.

3 comments:

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    Unempolyment is not the only problem its also underemployment.

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