Weakening Economic Indicators

pmi lossesTrading was all over the board today as investors were given mixed signals with the release of more economic data. To open the day, trading was mostly all selling as the Chicago PMI index came in well below analysts expectations. The market was hoping for a number of 52 to come in for September, however, actual results came in 46.1. Around midday, the Dow came back from being down over 100 points to positive territory as Final GDP numbers came in better than expected. However, in the end, we saw another day close in the red as the Dow finished 29 points lower.

We are now starting to see economic indicators begin to fall back on the "disappointing" side, which is becoming very discouraging for investors that believe we are out of this recession. What brought so much optimism back to Wall Street in recent months was that released data was beating market's low ball expectations. It is hard to make expectations lower from here on out, which means companies will need to start to perform to beat expectations. That doesn't seem to be happening much anytime soon. Also today, the ADP employment number came in far worse than analysts expected. The number came in at 254k loss in jobs compared to the 200k loss they were hoping for. That's a 25% difference. This set the tone for the unemployment number being released this Friday.

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As we grow closer to year end pressures, I expect selling pressure in Wall Street to increase. We've seen the shorts perform fairly well the past week, which is a good sign for those waiting for the short side. Deflationary pressures are continuing to mount up and government debt continues to rack up. Once again, all eyes will be on the banks for earnings to help push or pull the market. Goldman Sachs has been the front runner and will look to be the charging horse for banks on October 15th, when they release earnings. Although, numbers may still look good for the banks at the moment, there continues to be almost zero lending going on. This lack of lending has put a halt on many businesses and corporations around the country. Unfortunately, only time can help heal many of the wounds that exist in our current economic state. Happy Trading.


  1. Anonymous Says:

    what to expect from the earnings season? I bet on a push higher even though I am loaded with shorts...could you leave a comment with your opinion? thanks :) been a reader since 1 year now...

  2. Anonymous Says:

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  3. Jeff Says:

    yet again this site is dead. no activity.


    The economy is not out of the woods.

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