Rave Week - Dow On Hold While We Go and Vote

As anticipated, this week (at least the beginning of it) does not look to be a good week to anticipate market movement. Today, we saw the Dow Jones trade at low 179.25 M volume, the average being 335.66 M. Clearly, we see that Wall Street has taken the back seat to the upcoming election which takes place tomorrow. It was a pretty slow day all around for the market and not much movement was found in most sectors. Circuit City announced today that they will be closing 155 stores and cutting around 7,300 jobs, as we expected. This is just a tease until the big closure comes after the holidays.

On the bright side, China had a relatively strong opening of the week, bringing FXP down to $85 during points of the day. I was able to bulk up my position more at this discounted price. If I can continue to pick up shares at this discount, I am all about, because a storm is coming, and it's just a matter of time. It will be interesting to see how Asian markets respond this evening to the relatively weak opening of Wall Street today. I believe many countries predicted a nice rally this week.

Like I said last week, I am not planning on being too active this week. With the volume so low, it makes it a real volatile market vulnerable to several conditions. A couple positions that have been catching my eye are GOLD (GDX) and AIG. Everyone keeps saying we are in a "deflationary" market, hence the continual rate cut. Many predict us to eventually have The Fed rate at 0. At this point, inflation is inevitable. It doesn't matter how quick The Fed responds, we will experience inflation. At that point, gold becomes a commodity of high demand. I think GDX is a Strong Buy under $20. You can't go wrong.

Also, AIG is picked up strength the past few days. With the FDIC controlling it currently, I think its a pretty solid buy in the short term. Mind you, there will continue to be negative news with credit markets for the next year, so I look at it for the very short term.

As for now, I am mostly playing FXP. If SRS and SKF can get below $100, I feel very confident about getting back in those as well. This Friday, November 7, Employment Report comes out and you can count on this number being disappointing. I would not be surprised to see the Unemployment rate over 7% and the new jobs down huge from the previous quarter. This is bound to take a negative punch on the market. However, we still could be feeling the short squeeze up until Nov 14th, so be aware we may not see too much movement until Mid November. But be advised, this credit crisis is not going anywhere for a while. Get out and vote tomorrow and keep tabs on FXP. I'm guessing we should get a little bounce from it tomorrow. Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.


  1. Anonymous Says:

    i'm in AIG also.


    The unemployment rate is higher than it seems.